College Football Playoff odds update: Texas, LSU plummet after upsets

As contenders for the College Football Playoff (CFP) enter conference play, rivalry games have already tripped up teams we thought would be contenders until December.

#7 Texas is far from dead after falling to Oklahoma in another epic Red River Rivalry clash. However, Oregon and #22 LSU? They're closer to “doornail” status with a second loss.

Plus, the Big 12 race heats up. Could the conference send an at-large member — or two — as #8 BYU, #10 Texas Tech, and #11 Utah all stay hot?

So, here’s how Kalshi's college football traders see the current College Football Playoff picture entering Week 7.

(Click here for Kalshi’s latest College Football Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.}

Note: A Group of 5 school receives an automatic bid into the CFP, which is why a school with lower overall odds may be featured here. Odds at time of publication.

Last week, I said in my Georgia-Alabama preview that a playoff spot was on the line. Kalshi traders pretty much agreed, awarding the Dawgs the most likely spot in the CFP at present.

It was a mammoth road win for Gunnar Stockton, who seemed unflappable with an 81.8% completion rate on Saturday. When we get down to arguing, a controversial no-call on blatant Georgia defensive pass interference will be noteworthy in head-to-heads with 'Bama, but the stage is set regardless.

The Bulldogs have just two ranked opponents left the rest of the year: a visit to #9 Ole Miss and a home game against #13 Missouri. Even losing both, they'll likely have the resume to survive as a 10-2 SEC team whose 41-13 win over Oklahoma didn't age poorly on Saturday.

The race for the Big 12 is the most fascinating of any conference.

As mentioned in the intro, BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are all undefeated. There’s one head-to-head matchup — the “Holy War” between the Cougars and Utes in Salt Lake City — on November 7th that will provide a little bit of clarity, but this argument could be a mess.

BYU hosts #2 Notre Dame on Saturday. A loss might be treated as “free” against the title contender, but what if the Cougs can pull off the upset, but then lose to Utah and again in a Big 12 title game? Would they be in with such a great win?

Isolated on Friday night, Brigham Young’s 24-10 win over Iowa State raised some eyebrows, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier (77.4 QBR) can’t even be ruled out for the Heisman if they go undefeated through the Irish and everyone else. But, Kalshi traders still have them behind Utah and Texas Tech due to the brutal schedule.

Volunteers fans will start to have a serious conversation about Josh Heupel if they don’t ascend toward the CFP. It’s all out in front of them.

Heupel's team has three ranked opponents left: #17 Alabama on this coming third Saturday of October, #15 Kentucky, and #22 LSU. They're 9.5-point underdogs on Kalshi in this week's tilt against the Tide.

As an 11-1 SEC team — potentially not even having to play in the title game if Georgia runs the table — it’ll be hard to leave them out. Even at 10-2, they’ll have an argument with at least three quality wins.

But, I can't put the cart before the horse here. They've lost to all four ranked teams they've faced at home since the start of 2025, and their quarterback situation is a full-blown controversy. George MacIntyre (24.6 QBR) has the job after Faizon Brandon, nursing an injured shoulder, was so ineffective. We don't know who'll be under center against Alabama.

After peaking at 86%, Texas’ stunning loss to Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl last week saw them booted from the nation’s top team and back into the “general population” of the SEC.

Oh, what a terrifying place that can be. UT has four consecutive ranked schools on the docket between October 24th and November 14th, and none of them are dead for a CFP spot themselves yet. If Arch Manning, holding a 10:5 ratio of touchdowns to picks, doesn't start looking like the prospective No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft soon, the season could totally slip away from Steve Sarkisian's guys.

Of course, they'll probably be a favorite in at least three of those games, which is why Kalshi traders haven't jumped ship on the Longhorns, favoring them to make the dance at roughly the same clip (68%) that a school alum, James Talarico, leads the Texas Senate race odds (64%). I swear we live in the matrix.

Just two teams have ever made the College Football Playoff with three losses. That's why Oregon tanked like the NASDAQ in 2008 after a home loss to #12 UCLA in Eugene.

That's two ranked losses with #18 Oklahoma State rallying in Big 12 play, so they're not quite dead yet. But, it's pretty clear what needs to happen to make it from here. They've got to get past the two ranked teams left on the schedule: #25 Northwestern and #4 Ohio State. A three-loss team, should the trip to Columbus go as expected with #19 USC as its best win, just isn't going to cut it.

Dylan Raiola's miserable Saturday against the Bruins seems to have opened the door for third-stringer Brock Thomas if Dante Moore can't return this weekend. Thankfully, Moore should be back for those two ranked clashes, starting on Halloween.

I’m not sure anyone but diehard LSU fans and alumni are shedding a tear for Lane Kiffin, but it’s getting dark quickly for a team that envisioned a 12-0 campaign in title contention.

Kiffin, an offensive guru, got the part he was worried about down pat. LSU is sixth in the country in opposing yards per play allowed (4.0) on defense.

His hot streak selecting quarterbacks is just over. It's hard to go from Jaxson Dart to Trinidad Chambliss to a third straight Heisman Trophy odds contender, and Sam Leavitt has been a volatile disaster on a snap-to-snap basis. In the Tigers' two losses, he's averaged 7.1 yards per attempt with 5 sacks and 2 interceptions. Most of those last two were of the back-breaking variety.

It's not two losses that concerns Kalshi traders here. It's four pending ranked tilts, but it does help that three of them are in “Death Valley”, starting with this weekend's clash against #16 Mississippi State. LSU is a 14.5-point favorite.

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