The upsets kept coming in Week 5, shaking up the College Football Playoff odds. Those are a bit more relevant as we enter October, no?
Well, as crazy as it seems, I think a spot is entrenched with a win this weekend by either #2 Georgia or #6 Alabama — depending on who emerges from easily the game of the week in Tuscaloosa.
We’ve also got tricky road matchups for #7 Indiana, #22 Houston, and #19 USC. Who is on upset alert, and who are Kalshi's college football traders underrating to earn a big road dub?
For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
#7 Indiana at Nebraska
Nebraska has a chance to make a huge splash toward an unexpected College Football Playoff bid on Saturday — even with losses at Oregon and Ohio State penciled in later this year.
Matt Rhule’s bunch has started 5-0, and as was the case a year ago, it’s on the back of their defense. Nebraska is 28th in rushing YPA allowed, 13th in passing YPA allowed, and 13th in overall YPP allowed. However, with two conference games against lowly Maryland and Michigan State, they’ve yet to be tested.
Ultimately, the Huskers got run over by two ranked teams at home, USC and Michigan, in a similar spot last year. They gave up 244.0 yards per game on the ground to those teams. Improving that will be paramount against an Indiana team that’s currently seventh in rushing yards per game (241.8).
Of course, the Hoosiers’ early-season schedule has been even worse, though. They’ve smashed teams for a +167 point differential, but only Northwestern is on a trajectory to make a bowl game. Josh Hoover (86.9 QBR) has been sharp in these tune-ups, but his first true test as Fernando Mendoza’s replacement is here.
Indiana sent so much talent to the NFL that it seems improbable they’re going to decimate everyone again, but the Huskers just seem to come up short getting key stops on the ground under Rhule. Both of these teams love to run the ball, so I’m expecting a competitive, low-scoring tilt.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Indiana 23, Nebraska 16
#1 Texas at Oklahoma
Weird stuff can happen in one of college football’s best rivalries, and for the first time since 2008, the top-ranked team in the country will put that status on the line in the “Red River Rivalry”.
Remember, this is no true road game for #1 Texas as these teams meet in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, prompting two-way turnout. The Longhorns have won three of four in this setup after a dominant stretch by Oklahoma, which won all but one contest between 2016 and 2021.
Obviously, Texas is having the better campaign with the better team. Steve Sarkisian’s defense is 7th in all of FBS in YPP allowed (4.0), and Arch Manning has made timely plays even if the mistakes have manifested in 10 sacks and 3 interceptions.
The Sooners’ defense (4.0 YPP allowed) is actually tied with the Longhorns in that aforementioned category, which goes to show how mightily John Mateer is struggling at QB. He’s posted three straight games with a QBR of 59.0 or worse as they tumbled, on the road, to Georgia and Michigan (2-2) in this time.
Can Mateer, who cost Oklahoma with three picks in last year’s edition, suddenly turn into the potent dual threat that was near the top of Heisman Trophy odds before the season began? Outplaying Manning is probably the Sooners’ best hope to pull what would be yet another insane upset in these schools’ history together.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Texas 20, Oklahoma 17
#22 Houston at Kansas State
Mentally, I’ve already pared my favorite conference, the Big 12, down to a four-team race — and a competitive one — between Texas Tech, Houston, Kansas State, and #12 Utah.
Obviously, this is a pivotal one just as the Cougars’ loss two weeks ago to Texas Tech in Lubbock was. Two of those will probably be too much to overcome for a team playing well under Willie Fritz. Connor Weigman (80.6 QBR) was a two-point conversion short of that upset against Tech, but Houston’s D is 80th in YPP allowed (5.7) after two straight top-50 years under Fritz. They have to be better.
That’s especially true with the unique challenge Avery Johnson and Kansas State present. I’m not sure casual fans know that KSU is just 96th in rush rate (48.9%) so far, forcing Johnson’s arm to make more plays, and he’s answered the call to complete 66.2% of his throws and average 6.9 YPA.
In July, I did not expect that the Wildcats (5.0 YPP allowed) would have better defensive metrics than the Cougs. You can see that, in September lookaheads, Houston was a massive favorite. Now, on the road in Manhattan, Kansas State might be the better team despite not getting that credit from AP voters.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Kansas State 28, Houston 24
#19 USC at Penn State
Lincoln Riley’s seat will be scorching if Kalshi traders have nailed this shift.
Riley and the Trojans have no margin for error left after a home loss to #13 Oregon two weeks ago with meetings against Ohio State and Indiana looming. A loss in Happy Valley would put the ceiling (in all likelihood) at another disappointing 8-4 campaign despite Jayden Maiava's heroics (82.8 QBR) on an injury-plagued USC offense.
Unfortunately for them, Penn State is tossing its famous “Whiteout” night game in their direction as they seek an important win under Matt Campbell. Campbell is 0-2 in Big Ten play thus far with the Nittany Lions, and Rocco Becht (53.5 QBR), the quarterback who followed him from Iowa State, has an ugly 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions ratio in these tilts.
Star wideout Trent Mosley does have a chance to return for USC, which would be a big boost to an offense that is humming.
I think Kalshi traders are giving a lot of respect to the spot because, in the last six “Whiteout” games, the Nits are 5-1 with a +124 point differential. But, that was James Franklin and a team routinely in playoff contention.
This Campbell-Becht version has proven a little clunky on offense, and that is a big boost to a USC team that has no problem scoring but otherwise ranks 86th in YPP allowed (5.8).
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: USC 30, Penn State 26
#2 Georgia at #6 Alabama
We’ve saved the best for last in an epic clash between SEC powers that have met eight times in the postseason since 2010.
This is just the third meeting between Georgia and Alabama in Tuscaloosa in that period, though. In separate divisions, they just don’t clash in the regular season extremely often. The consequences of this meeting, though, are a resume that’s clearly bolstered enough to make the College Football Playoff barring a disaster from the winner.
Georgia’s pedigree has earned them the benefit of the doubt when they’ve blown the doors off three conference teams, but it is worth mentioning that the three — Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma — are perhaps the three worst offensive squads anywhere in the conference. I’ve had doubts about whether their schedule or secondary has actually turned around compared to a year ago, and allowing Oklahoma’s John Mateer to complete 73.5% of his passes, aside from two critical errors, wasn’t a vote of confidence.
Meanwhile, Alabama is back from the dead under Kalen DeBoer. They shut down the Kamario Taylor hype train in Starkville last week and have posted at least 45 points in every single game this season. Combined with ranking 33rd in YPP allowed on defense (4.8), Alabama has flown through a more difficult schedule than the Dawgs.
The Tide are currently allowing 2.5 yards per carry (7th in FBS). For years, I’ve said you just have to force Gunnar Stockton into obvious passing situations if you want to have a chance to beat Georgia. When he’s thrown at least 30 times, UGA is just 5-2, and his QBR is 73.5 on average. In all other starts, they’re 15-1, and his QBR is 79.7.
Alabama’s run defense gives them a great chance to do just that.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Alabama 28, Georgia 24
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