CFP odds update: Alabama surges, Florida falls ahead of Week 6

A wild weekend in college football will have long-lasting effects on the title picture.

In a ranked showdown, it was Kalen DeBoer and #6 Alabama that proved their might with a dominant road win over #17 Mississippi State, who lost multiple key players to injury.

Plus, #16 Florida took a huge step back, and #20 Iowa couldn't pull an upset.

So, here’s how Kalshi's college football traders see the current College Football Playoff picture entering Week 6.

(Click here for Kalshi’s latest College Football Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.}

Note: A Group of 5 school receives an automatic bid into the CFP, which is why a school with lower overall odds may be featured here. Odds at time of publication.

It hasn't been a smooth tenure for Kalen DeBoer and #6 Alabama, but he got a marquee win at the right time in Starkville on Saturday.

While the world (including yours truly) got caught up in Kamario Taylor mania, it was actually freshman Keelon Russell for the Tide that balled out, posting 285 passing yards with 3 touchdowns and a 96.8 QBR. That was Russell’s third straight game over 96.0, vaulting him to third in the country (91.0) in overall quarterbacking.

Those good feelings may not last forever if the team can't quickly turn around for a mammoth game in Tuscaloosa against #2 Georgia. A win would almost certainly put them into the CFP for good.

It must be nice to get promoted on your week off.

#12 Utah's rise to the best odds of any Big 12 team (43%) had more to do with Texas Tech's stumble this weekend. The Red Raiders trailed lowly Colorado at halftime, 7-3, before pulling away late with a couple of defensive turnovers. Their clunky offense posted just 5.0 yards per play (YPP) against a conference bottom-dweller.

The Utes are definitely rolling, though. They’re 4-0 with a +132 point differential, including a 43-10 drubbing of Arkansas that looked a lot like Georgia’s same easy win.

With no head-to-head matchup, it’s possible both schools enter December’s Big 12 Championship in Dallas with unblemished records.

The Group of 5 race seems like a three-horse race at the moment, and only one is actually on the board at Kalshi. We'll see if #23 Boise State gets added at some point, but they've got a long way to go. The Broncos are only 6.5-point favorites on the road against Fresno State this Saturday. Plus, undefeated North Dakota State could potentially loom in a Mountain West title game.

Unranked James Madison doesn't. ESPN has them ranked 132nd in overall strength of schedule in the Sun Belt, and they'll likely be a double-digit favorite in all remaining contests.

This race will take a while to develop, and these teams have zero margin for error. I’d assume that’s why it’s a slowly developing part of the market at Kalshi.

The grind of a week-to-week season is that some spots can be perfect for a team, and some can be dreadful. #16 Florida experienced both in the last two weeks.

They got to play spoiler after #9 Ole Miss' huge win over Lane Kiffin two weeks ago, but after a marquee victory of their own, #14 Missouri returned the favor in Columbia on Saturday, winning 45-17.

Not to toot my own horn, but I had concerns about Florida and quarterback Aaron Philo playing from behind in my Week 5 predictions, and Philo struggled to post just 5.8 YPA in that one.

The problem for the Gators is that a team has maxed out at three losses to make the CFP, and they visit #1 Texas and battle Georgia in Jacksonville before the start of November. Plus, the SEC already has three entrenched representatives in those two, plus Alabama, with minimal reason to include UF if they've lost to both.

It seems they’ll need an upset of an elite team to get back in the mix.

#20 Iowa is a great story, but there are intrinsic challenges under Kirk Ferentz that they've got to solve to ever be legitimate CFP contenders.

It was a fairytale to believe they'd be able to outscore #5 Ohio State in some fashion, and all they accomplished was bolstering Jeremiah Smith's hold on Heisman Trophy odds. The Hawkeyes scored just 14 points and posted 4.5 YPP. They needed a kickoff return to hit 20 points against Michigan.

They just can't score with one of the nation's most limited passing attacks. If they were able to somehow “football” their way to a home upset of the Buckeyes, they don't face a ranked team the rest of the year, but Wisconsin, Washington, and an upstart Northwestern all seem dangerous enough that Kalshi traders are bailing on them to make the dance.

Saturday was a pretty devastating reminder of where #17 Mississippi State stacks up relative to their SEC peers in any fashion that doesn't include star quarterback Kamario Taylor.

The youngster tried his best, but the offense turned the ball over four times, and the Bulldogs’ defense got ripped apart for 7.9 YPP by the Tide. They were 111th in YPP allowed a year ago, so it seems the defense’s hot start might have been adjusted for early-season competition.

State is down to just 9% to make the CFP on Kalshi — likely because #10 LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas all remain on their schedule as top-10 schools. Taylor might be able to pull one upset, but this defense proved to be atrocious in its first major test.

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