College football Week 7 odds: Ohio State, Indiana headline six ranked matchups

A few weeks ago, I made a big deal out of a new record when we had six different matchups between AP Top 25 schools. Little did I know that record would be matched just three weeks later.

What a doozy of a Saturday that we have in store for us. As we inch toward the College Football Playoff, the stakes are higher, and that couldn’t be more true in a top-five battle between #4 Ohio State and #5 Indiana in Bloomington.

The other top-10 battle is in Provo — a sentence I didn’t think I’d utter about #8 BYU in the Big 12 this year. They’re hosting #2 Notre Dame as, arguably, the Irish’s toughest test all year.

We’ve got other ranked battles in SEC and Big 12 to cover, too. It is a jam-packed slate, and Kalshi's college football traders are taking stands. Here is how I see the games unfolding.

(Click here for Kalshi’s latest College Football Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.}

The Jeremiah Smith tour takes a stop in Bloomington. The massive favorite in Heisman Trophy odds will hope to help put his Buckeyes on top in a game that likely decides the Big Ten’s regular-season winner.

Ohio State is fourth in the nation in yards per play behind Smith and QB Julian Sayin (87.1 QBR). Considering the Bucks usually rest their starters in the second half, no team in FBS has a better first-half point differential (+127), which, coincidentally, excludes their late-stage collapse against #7 Texas.

Indiana came back from a 13-0 halftime deficit in Lincoln last week to dispatch the Huskers thanks to two mammoth touchdowns (and 187 total receiving yards) from Nick Marsh. The champs have just been a little too vulnerable against the pass, allowing 7.0 yards per attempt (YPA; 58th in FBS) compared to last year’s squad.

These are two top-20 run defenses on a YPA basis with dynamic passing games. We could see a pretty brisk tempo in not-your-father’s Big Ten noon showdown.

As much as I want to trust the Buckeyes’ pedigree, Indiana has never lost at home under Curt Cignetti, and we saw Ryan Day’s squad unravel in Austin. I think this could be another “how did they do that?” moment for IU behind their experienced, accurate passer, Josh Hoover (88.6 QBR).

Ohio State has been so good in the first half and so dicey in the second half that I almost wonder if some Kalshi traders are waiting to play their cards behind the Hoosiers at this point.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Indiana 27, Ohio State 24

As I mentioned when looking at the College Football Playoff odds earlier this week, it is do-or-die for Lane Kiffin and #22 LSU.

They're now two losses deep this season when the maximum in a 12-team format to this point has been three to make the CFP. Plus, including #16 Mississippi State, there are four ranked teams ahead, but at least three of those games are at home.

The Tigers have lost two shootouts, but they’re sixth in yards per play allowed (4.0 YPP) overall across the country. I actually think this is a dangerous dark horse should they make the dance. That’s provided Sam Leavitt (81.2 QBR) stays healthy and makes good decisions with the football.

When we last saw State, Kamario Taylor mania burst like a balloon in a 56-23 loss to Alabama, and an injured Fluff Bothwell played just a handful of snaps at running back. Both are questionable with injuries for Saturday’s tilt.

The Bulldogs’ defense was also torched for 7.9 YPP against a Tide team that just went toe-to-toe with Georgia, but the problem is that, at their best, Lane Kiffin’s offense is a juggernaut, too. A lot of pressure is going to be on Taylor to keep pace here, but this LSU defense has been better than Alabama’s in the early going.

An early kickoff in Death Valley is better than a late one, but this is likely the best setup the Tigers will have among the four remaining ranked games on their schedule.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: LSU 49, Mississippi State 17

Call it the Austin Simmons revenge game in Oxford, which might be the sleeper of these six ranked games on Saturday. I can’t wait.

Of course, Simmons was #9 Ole Miss's starter to begin 2025, got hurt, and opened the door for Trinidad Chambliss, who's still in the race for the Davey O'Brien Award, which is handed to the nation's top quarterback.

Really, both of these guys are. Simmons has a 14-to-1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions for #13 Missouri, and he took care of the ball in an ugly 27-6 win last week against a reeling Texas A&M squad. Eli Drinkwitz's defense has carried them to this point; Mizzou is 15th across FBS in opponent YPP allowed (4.5).

Slowing down Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy, who returned from injury against Vanderbilt, is a different story. Even with Lacy — a former Mizzou Tiger — out of the lineup at several points, Ole Miss is 11th in the country in points per game (38.8).

These teams are definitely a clash of styles. Pete Golding’s team wants to play in shootouts and just have Chambliss make a play or two late. Drinkwitz’s squad wants to play defense and run behind Jamal Roberts, a senior tailback who’s second in FBS in rushing yards (828).

Honestly, the latter’s style travels, and I’ll tell you what: Ole Miss better not get caught peeking ahead to a road battle with Texas next week.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Ole Miss 31, Missouri 27

It’s the third Saturday in October, which means #6 Alabama and #14 Tennessee fans know exactly whose up on the calendar.

It’s tough to call this a hotly anticipated rivalry when Alabama, through the illustrious Nick Saban era, has won 17 of the last 19 meetings, but a lot of Vols faithful would happily trade all of those losses by forgettable squads for a marquee, “save your season” type of win in Knoxville on Saturday.

If a controversial pass interference call went Alabama’s way, they’re probably the No. 1 team in the country right now. That’s the margin that, really, no one holds against them in a breakout season under Kalen DeBoer. Keelon Russell (90.0 QBR) has been masterful despite being just 19 years old, and they’re a solid 50th in YPP allowed (5.2) despite a brutal schedule to this point.

Tennessee just hasn’t had the year they hoped, struggling to replace Joey Aguilar under center. Their elite defensive front did hold Texas to just 20 points, but Faizon Brandon (46.7 QBR) was both ineffective and injured in that tilt, and backup George MacIntyre (24.7 QBR) has been dreadful. Brandon is questionable for this one.

For as great as Russell has been, Georgia is 38th in sack rate, and Mississippi State is 58th. Tennessee is 8th. They make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable, so we’ll see if the Volunteers can drag this one into the mud and make a game out of it.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Alabama 22, Tennessee 16

For some NFL-centric college football fans, #18 Oklahoma State games have become appointment viewing.

The aforementioned Jeremiah Smith leads in current odds to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but Cowboys QB Drew Mestemaker is second in those odds and surging up boards of quarterback-needy teams. The 6’3”, mobile gunslinger has four straight games over 300 passing yards, all but erasing an early-season loss to Tulsa.

I think this is a phenomenal matchup with Willie Fritz and the #20 Houston Cougars, who had Texas Tech on the ropes three weeks ago. Houston has relied on its star quarterback, Connor Weigman (85.1 QBR), to bail out an uncharacteristically poor defense for Fritz’s tenure. Houston is coughing up 7.4 yards per pass, and Mestemaker will easily be the best passer they’ve faced to this point.

When Mestemaker, wide receiver Wyatt Young, and head coach Eric Morris all packed their bags to go from North Texas in Denton up the highway to Stillwater, I could only think about what a perfect fit they could be for the disgusting shootouts we see in the Big 12. The Cougars are averaging 32.6 PPG themselves.

These teams are both alive in the Big 12, so there are important stakes to this one. But, above all, it’s probably going to be the most electric of these six ranked matchups.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Houston 41, Oklahoma State 38

As two former independent FBS schools, Notre Dame and BYU have crossed paths nine times since the start of 1992. The Irish are 5-2 in the recorded matchups after vacating two wins due to academic violations. They actually met in Las Vegas (?) most recently in 2022.

None of those matchups were as close to the magnitude of this one. BYU’s path to the CFP isn’t really impacted by a loss here, considering they’ll still control their destiny in the Big 12. But, a win could make things particularly yucky for the committee should they stumble and deserve at-large consideration in a conference that’s booming with five top-20 schools.

I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, though — as Kalshi traders are indicating. Notre Dame has looked absolutely unstoppable thus far, ranking second in the nation with 44.0 PPG despite a 57.6% rush rate. That is a Saban-era level of smashmouth dominance from Marcus Freeman’s guys, who will always be elite on defense, as well.

The Cougars could be relieved to be getting star running back LJ Martin back from injury for this tilt, but Martin won’t fix what has been a desolate passing game (208.8 yards per game) under Bear Bachmeier for two seasons. The burly quarterback wants to pound the rock, but they weren’t able to in two games against Texas Tech a year ago, and the Irish have allowed just 2.1 YPA (3rd in FBS) on the ground thus far.

Even amidst what should be the most electric atmosphere in Provo in decades, Notre Dame’s ability to put this game on Bachmeier’s shoulders should help them win it. Watch out for stud cornerback Leonard Moore, a projected top-10 pick in the draft who has four passes defended this year but is still searching for his first interception. This would be a great game to nab one.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Notre Dame 23, BYU 13

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