Kalshi traders have the New York Giants at 54% to win and the Washington Commanders at 46% in a Thursday night NFC East rematch of their 27-27 overtime tie in Week 5. The Giants are 5-2-1 and lead the division behind J.J. McCarthy, who took over at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, while Washington is 2-5-1 and coming off a 20-13 loss to the Rams.
New York has not beaten Washington since November 2023, Jayden Daniels is working through a left elbow injury, and Kalshi's power rankings show a 12-spot gap between the teams.
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When and where do the Commanders play the Giants in Week 10 of the 2026 season?
The Commanders and Giants kick off Thursday, Nov. 12, at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with the game streaming on Prime Video.
Who is favored to win the Commanders vs. Giants Week 10 game?
New York Giants: New York is 5-2-1 under head coach John Harbaugh and leads the NFC East after a 19-11 win at Philadelphia on Nov. 8. McCarthy, acquired from Minnesota in a trade, is the starting quarterback with Dart out for the season, and he has thrown for 379 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts, according to Yahoo Sports. As of this writing, McCarthy (hip) and running back Cam Skattebo (hamstring) were limited Monday and full participants Tuesday and Wednesday, receiver Malik Nabers (knee) and tackle Andrew Thomas (groin) were full participants in each report, edge rusher Abdul Carter (knee/back) moved from limited to full on Wednesday, and linebacker Malik Harrison (groin) is questionable, according to the team's reports. Kalshi traders have the Giants at 54%, which likely reflects home field, the division lead and Washington's slide.
Washington Commanders: Washington is 2-5-1 under head coach Dan Quinn and is coming off a 20-13 loss to the Rams on Nov. 8 after beating Philadelphia 27-10 a week earlier. Daniels is the starting quarterback and, as of this writing, was a full participant in practice each day through Wednesday with the left elbow injury. Center Lucas Patrick (concussion) and tight end Colson Yankoff (knee) did not practice and have been ruled out, according to the team's website, and receiver Treylon Burks (foot) carries no game designation. Kalshi traders have the Commanders at 46%, which likely reflects a string of close losses and the 2-5-1 record.
Kalshi power rankings
New York enters as the No. 13 team in the league with a Power Score of 54.4 and a 65% playoff qualification price, while Washington ranks 25th with a Power Score of 17.6 and a 10% playoff price, a 12-spot gap heading into the NFC East matchup.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Giants at 54% to win and the Commanders at 46%.
What is the point spread for Commanders vs. Giants in Week 10?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Giants winning by more than 2.5 points at 47%.
What is the projected point total?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game finishing over 41.5 total points at 48%.
What is the biggest storyline in the Commanders vs. Giants Week 10 game?
The biggest storyline is the rematch of the Oct. 11 meeting, a 27-27 overtime tie at Washington. New York has not beaten Washington since Nov. 19, 2023, according to Sports Illustrated, and Washington has called Thursday a must-win, according to the team's website. McCarthy has been sacked eight times over the last two weeks, according to Yahoo Sports, so the Giants' protection and Washington's pass rush are the matchup to watch, with Patrick ruled out and Nick Allegretti set to start at center for the Commanders, according to the team's website.
What are the Commanders' and Giants' expectations for the rest of the 2026 season?
Washington Commanders: Washington is 2-5-1 with wins over Seattle and Philadelphia, a tie against the Giants, and losses to Indianapolis, Dallas, Philadelphia, San Francisco and the Rams. Kalshi traders have the Commanders at 10% to make the playoffs. After the Giants they host Cincinnati on Monday, Nov. 23, visit Arizona on Nov. 29 and visit Tennessee on Dec. 6, and their only remaining division game after Thursday is the Week 18 finale against Dallas.
New York Giants: New York is 5-2-1 with wins over Dallas, Tennessee, Arizona, Houston and Philadelphia, a tie at Washington, and losses at the Rams and to New Orleans. Kalshi traders have the Giants at 65% to make the playoffs. After Washington they host Jacksonville on Nov. 22, visit Indianapolis on Nov. 29 and host San Francisco on Dec. 6, with division games against Dallas on Jan. 3 and Philadelphia in Week 18 still to come.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have New York as a slight favorite at 54%, with the Giants atop the NFC East at 5-2-1 and the Commanders at 2-5-1 and short on wins. The swing factor is the health of both quarterbacks, McCarthy's hip and Daniels' elbow, along with how Washington's offensive line holds up without starting center Lucas Patrick. Kalshi's prices for Commanders vs. Giants will keep moving until the game ends.
What are the score predictions for Commanders vs. Giants in Week 10? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game finishing over 41.5 total points at 48%.
What is the spread for Commanders vs. Giants in Week 10? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Giants winning by more than 2.5 points at 47%.
Who is favored to win, Commanders or Giants? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Giants at 54% to win and the Commanders at 46%.
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