The odds of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaving the Trump administration are spiking following reports of a dispute over national security concerns involving Nvidia customer Megaspeed.
Lutnick's chances of leaving the Trump administration in 2026 rose from 29.2% to 47% in 24 hours, an increase of 17.8 percentage points. They now sit at 42%.
Other names that ranked high on the market include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at 14% and acting DOGE administrator Amy Gleason at 16%.
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Lutnick confronted over national security concerns
Senior White House officials are reportedly discussing Lutnick's handling of national security concerns involving Nvidia customer Megaspeed. Reuters reported that senior White House officials are discussing Lutnick’s decision not to act on the matter.
Axios reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confronted Lutnick in the White House Situation Room. Bessent questioned why Lutnick had not placed Nvidia customer Megaspeed on the Commerce Department's Entity List, which restricts exports to companies raising national security concerns.
Lutnick reportedly said he would “look into it.”
White House officials are reportedly concerned about Lutnick’s actions in the wake of Jensen Huang’s resignation as CEO of Nvidia over two affairs he had with Nvidia executives. The controversy also involves allegations about a previous relationship between Huang and a woman reportedly connected to Singapore-based Megaspeed, amid concerns about possible Chinese intelligence activity. Huang resigned from the company on Wednesday.
Commerce Undersecretary Jeff Kessler also received warnings about Megaspeed, but he said, “That’s a decision for the secretary.”
The report also raised questions about whether trade tensions with China influenced the administration's handling of Megaspeed.
Commerce Department spokesperson Kristen Eichamer denied the confrontation in the Situation Room.
“This is false,” Eichamer said. “Secretary Bessent and Secretary Lutnick had no such conversation.”
Politico reported that some lawmakers on Capitol Hill are calling for Lutnick’s dismissal, including some Republicans.
“The obvious question is why did he choose to sell advanced chips?” Sen. John Kennedy said. “Secretary Lutnick needs to answer that in front of God and country. If I were he, I’d call a press conference this afternoon and explain what happened and why he agreed to sell ‘em chips, and I would stop doing it.”
Congressional leaders are also having trouble getting answers from the White House on the situation. Rep. Bill Huizenga called for Lutnick to testify before Congress, but noted, “I don’t think he’s been very responsive.”
Bloomberg reported that Trump continues to support Lutnick despite the controversy.
“Trump maintains complete confidence in the secretary and his ability to carry out the position as the most transformative Commerce Secretary in modern history,” a White House official, who declined to be named, said in an emailed statement, Bloomberg reported.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
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