The Arizona Diamondbacks head to Busch Stadium on Thursday afternoon to close out a four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals, with Brandon Pfaadt facing Michael McGreevy in a pitching matchup that has traders nearly split down the middle.
Traders give the Cardinals a 52% chance to win, with the Diamondbacks right behind at 50%.
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What's at stake
Arizona (53-49) enters as the second-place team in the NL West, sitting in a wild card position but well out of reach of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who hold a commanding grip on the division. St. Louis (52-49) is in a similar position in the NL Central, hovering around the wild card line with Milwaukee running away with the division.
Both clubs came into this series playing meaningful September-style baseball in July, and the Diamondbacks have gone 4-2 against the Cardinals this season, including an improbable 8-7 comeback from seven runs down on July 19 in Phoenix, matching the largest comeback in franchise history.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the NL West
The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games and arrive in St. Louis with genuine momentum. Arizona ranks 15th in ERA across MLB this season, a significant step forward for a team that finished 23rd in the category last year. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte continue to anchor the lineup, though the offense has been inconsistent overall, ranking 23rd in OPS.
Pfaadt takes the ball with a 4-1 record and a 4.58 ERA, but his road splits are a concern: he carries a 4.74 ERA away from Chase Field and has allowed opposing lineups to square him up at a .440 slugging percentage on the road. Arizona has also hit just .227 against right-handed starters this season, a difficult profile heading into a start from McGreevy. The Dodgers' stranglehold on the NL West has Arizona sitting at just 1% to win the division title on Kalshi. The Diamondbacks are focused squarely on the wild card, and a win tonight would help keep pace in a crowded NL race.
The St. Louis Cardinals and the NL Central
The Cardinals have not fallen below .500 at any point this season, a quiet consistency that has kept them in the wild card conversation all summer. St. Louis counters with McGreevy, who has been one of the more quietly impressive starters in the NL this year. His 2.96 ERA across 19 starts is backed by a 1.10 WHIP and a 1.89 ERA in nine home starts, numbers that reflect ace-level command at Busch Stadium. He pounds the zone, walking just 5.5% of hitters, and his pitch-to-contact approach is tailor-made for a Cardinals lineup that makes consistent contact.
Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson anchor the offense, and St. Louis's contact profile sets up well against Pfaadt's road tendencies. Speaking to MLB Network Radio earlier this season, McGreevy framed the Cardinals' young core as the foundation of something bigger, a group motivated by the chance to build a new era in St. Louis. That mindset has translated to results.
Traders price St. Louis at 2% to win the NL Central, with Milwaukee holding an 85% grip on the division. The Cardinals are playing for the wild card, and every home win against a contender like Arizona adds up.
The bigger picture
Neither team is a serious World Series contender on Kalshi's market: Arizona sits at 1% and St. Louis at 0%. Tonight's game won't move those numbers much, but it could have real implications for the wild card picture in a crowded NL field.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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