Digger Rotten Tomatoes odds: forecast drops 10 points to 53.8% after mixed reactions

One of the year’s most anticipated movies saw a deep drop on Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes rating forecast.

Digger fell 10 points from 63.8% to 53.8% on Kalshi's Rotten Tomatoes market following the release of mixed early reactions from critics on social media.

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Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s dark comedy stars a heavily made-up Tom Cruise as Digger Rockwell, an oil tycoon whose company causes a catastrophic environmental disaster. Digger then attempts to control the narrative and portray himself as the world's savior as the crisis escalates.

The social media embargo has been lifted on the film, but the review embargo is still in place. Early critical reactions to Digger have been sharply divided.

Next Best Picture’s owner and editor-in-chief Matt Neglia praised Cruise's performance and the film's visual ambition.

“Digger is not at all what it seems on the surface,” Neglia wrote. “What begins as an over-the-top comedy of gigantic satirical proportions suddenly turns into a meta-somber commentary on the bleak state of the world we’re inevitably heading towards, our inability to stop it, and what we’ll likely do in its aftermath.”

IndieWire’s features writer Jim Hemphill wrote that Cruise delivers a dynamic performance as Digger that takes some big swings at the camera and connects every time.

“Digger not only showcases Tom Cruise’s best performance since Magnolia, it’s one of the most visually inventive, conceptually audacious, and unpredictable studio movies ever made,” Hemphill wrote. “Takes so many bold aesthetic swings, it makes Bardo look like an episode of The Golden Girls.”

Alex Billington of FirstShowing.net compared Digger with other dark comedies that commented on the eras in which they were released and praised Iñárritu’s storytelling ability in the face of darkness.

“As sharp as Dr. Strangelove, as angry as Don’t Look Up, but with Iñárritu’s brilliant theatricality commenting on how f’ed up the world is now & how BS every part of it is,” Billington wrote.

The not-so-glowing reviews of Digger held nothing back in its reviews of the film’s failings.

IndieWire executive editor Ryan Lattanzio was considerably less enthusiastic, calling the film “a self-indulgent miscalculation from end to end.”

“The problem with continuing to make statements about your own art and reflect on your own legacy is that you’ll eventually ruin both,” Lattanzio wrote. “A self-indulgent miscalculation from end to end.”

Joey Magidson of Awards Radar praised elements of the film's performances and production design but said its larger ambitions did not come together.

“Tom Cruise and Alejandro G. Iñárritu are taking a massive swing here, but despite some great production design and a commitment to their big choice, not a whole lot works here,” Magidson wrote. “Cruise is good and Riz Ahmed is a highlight, but man this wasn’t enjoyable.”

Clayton Davis of Variety praised several performances but argued that the script and story do not fully support them.

“In the end, not all the dots connect, and I wish the film leaned harder into the absurdity and satire it kept reaching for,” Davis wrote. “Shocker! The divide on this one is going to be wide.”

The divided early reactions come as Kalshi's forecast for Digger has fallen 10 points to 53.8%. The film opens in theaters Oct. 2, 2026, with formal reviews still to come.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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