Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has reached a new all-time high on Kalshi's Michigan Senate winner market, with traders now pricing him at 73% to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in November. The mark represents the widest gap between the two candidates since El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination on August 4, 2026, and comes as disclosed outside spending in the race surpasses $205 million.
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What do the polls say?
The New York Times reported that the Trafalgar Group poll shows El-Sayed leading by 2 points.
A Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research poll also shows El-Sayed leading by just 1 point.
Meanwhile, Marist University’s poll showed a much wider gap among voters, with 51% for El-Sayed and 42% for Rogers, a difference of 7 percentage points.
Michigan race draws more than $205 million
The close polling comes as outside groups pour millions of dollars into the Michigan Senate race.
Bridge Michigan reported that the Michigan Senate race could become one of the most expensive races during this election cycle, thanks to “recent super PAC spending tied to Republicans and President Donald Trump.”
“Disclosed spending on the closely watched race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has surpassed $205 million, according to federal records reviewed by Bridge Michigan,” the Michigan news outlet reported.
The actual spending total is likely higher because the latest campaign fundraising reports cover activity only through July 15 and some nonprofit groups are not required to disclose their spending.
“The true total is almost certainly much higher because campaigns have not reported fundraising since July 15 and millions have likely been spent by so-called ‘dark money’ nonprofits that do not have to disclose their spending.” Bridge Michigan reported.
Republican outside groups are also reshuffling resources elsewhere on the Senate map as Election Day approaches.
NBC News reported that a key GOP super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, decided to shift its funding away from Republican Michael Whatley's campaign for the North Carolina Senate seat to focus on winnable races.
Right now, the funding is being dedicated to races like the one in Kansas between GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton, but other super PACs could be focused on the Michigan race pouring even more money into both campaigns.
“As Election Day draws closer, Democrats are growing more optimistic about their chances as Trump’s approval ratings drop and voters express frustrations with high costs and the Iran war,” NBC News reported.
Senate control market
Michigan is one of several competitive races that could help determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Kalshi's Senate control market currently prices Democratic control at 63% and Republican control at 37%.
Traders think there is also a good chance that the 2026 midterms could lead to a blue wave for Democrats.
The market for a blue wave happening in 2026 shows an 86% chance that Democrats win 218 or more seats in the House and 49 or more seats in the Senate.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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