Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has opened a wide lead over Republican Mike Rogers on Kalshi's Michigan Senate winner market.
El-Sayed’s chances of winning in November are currently priced at 70%, while Rogers is priced at 30%. El-Sayed’s chances were priced as low as 55% in the immediate aftermath of his Democratic primary victory on August 4th.
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Kalshi's separate Michigan Senate margin-of-victory market currently forecasts a Democratic victory of 3.5 points.
What do the polls say?
Recent polling also shows El-Sayed ahead.
USA Today reported that a new Suffolk University poll shows El-Sayed leading Rogers 47%-40% among likely voters. The survey also found significant opposition to the Trump administration among respondents.
“Nearly half of the likely voters in Michigan surveyed said they were casting their ballot ‘to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation,’” USA Today reported. “That 48% dwarfed the 20% who want to support Trump and the 28% who said their vote didn’t have much to do with him.”
The Associated Press also reported that El-Sayed is receiving campaign support from former Vice President Kamala Harris. She will appear with El-Sayed in Detroit today at a key point in his campaign. Harris' visit comes as Rogers has also been campaigning in Detroit and courting Democratic and independent voters as he tries to expand his support beyond the Republican base.
“Her visit comes at a pivotal time in the closely watched Senate race between El-Sayed and [Rogers], a former congressman,” The Associated Press reported. “If Democrats hold Michigan’s Senate seat, they’d still need to win four more currently held by the GOP if they are to win control of the 100-member chamber in November. If Rogers wins, their challenge would be even greater.”
Time, however, may be running out for Rogers. Decision Desk HQ director of data science Scott Tranter told The Hill that its model gives El-Sayed a 67% probability of winning the seat.
“El-Sayed’s got the momentum,” Tranter said. “Michigan’s going to start voting in about a month on the early side. And look, everything you know about Michigan – about a third of that voting to come in before Election Day. So Mike Rogers’s time is running out.”
Balance of power
Kalshi's congressional balance-of-power market also currently gives its highest odds to Democratic control of both chambers.
The market prices Democratic control of both the House and Senate at 61%, Democratic House control with Republican Senate control at 30%, Republican control of both chambers at 8.2%, and Republican House control with Democratic Senate control at 0.8%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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