Ezra Frech has been at the top of the Kalshi Dancing with the Stars season 35 winner market since the third episode of the show, and after episode 5, it looks like he might be there for a while.
Traders now price Frech as the odds-on-favorite at 56%, with Maura Higgins and Harry Shum Jr. trailing at 13% and 12%, respectively.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What happened in episode 5?
Despite some buzz earlier in the week regarding Jackson Olson's distasteful (and now-deleted) Instagram comment about co-star Guillermo Rodriguez, both Olson and Rodriguez survived the audience vote in episode 5.
Instead, reality star Ciara Miller went home during the Mariah Carey themed week, even though judge Carrie Ann Inaba called it her “best dance so far.”
Maura Higgins topped the leaderboard this week, earning the first 9 of the season for an overall score of 25/30. Harry Shum Jr., Jenna Dewan, and Ezra Frech were right behind her with the next highest scores of the night, all scoring 24/30, and Amber Glenn behind them at 23/30. This was Frech's personal highest score of the season, keeping him with the highest odds in the Kalshi winner market.
In the middle scoring-wise were Julia Stiles, Tatyana Ali, Connor Wood, Jackson Olson, Ciara Miller, and Tyler Cameron. A solid 21/30 was not enough to keep Miller safe, and she went home at the end of the episode.
Rodriguez once again found himself with the lowest score of the night at 13/30, but he coasted on his charm and audience goodwill to yet again make it to the next episode.
Who is expected to join Frech in the finals?
Kalshi traders have high confidence in Frech, who leads both the winner market at 56% and the finalists market at 97%. Unsurprisingly, traders are also feeling good about Glenn, Shum Jr., and Higgins with over 80% confidence in the finalists market for all three.
Fighting for a spot behind the season leaders are Jenna Dewan at 58%, Julia Stiles at 38%, and Connor Wood at 29%. None of these stars have become major talking points during the season, but there is still time for them to wow both the judges and the voting audiences at home enough to earn a spot in the finals on November 24.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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