Sen. John Fetterman's surprise appearance at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas coincided with a sharp move in the Kalshi market for whether the Pennsylvania Democrat will leave his party.
The market for Fetterman leaving the Democratic Party saw a sudden surge Wednesday night during the convention before a slight sell off. The market currently shows a 52% chance Fetterman will leave the party before 2028, 45% he’ll leave before Aug. 1, 2027, and 38% he’ll leave before April 1, 2027.
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What caused the surge?
The Associated Press’ Jonathan J. Cooper reported that Fetterman appeared in a one-minute recorded video introducing fellow Pennsylvania Sen. Dave McCormick, a Republican whom Fetterman called a “great American” and “great friend.” Fetterman also said he would work with McCormick and Trump to “fight and defend the steel way of life” in western Pennsylvania.
“I’m always going to stand with America,” Fetterman said. “I’m always going to reject the extremes and socialism and that anti-American way of life.”
The appearance intensified existing speculation that Fetterman could switch parties, something the senator has repeatedly denied. A Fetterman party switch would also alter the Senate math. Democrats currently need to flip four Republican-held seats to regain the majority; if Fetterman joined the GOP, they would need an additional seat.
Fetterman rejected the speculation after his appearance, saying he would not leave the Democratic Party. He described himself as a “lifelong Democrat who votes overwhelmingly with my party” and said that if Democrats win a 51-49 Senate majority in November 2026, he would remain their 51st vote.
Fetterman under scrutiny
Fetterman has recently faced criticism over his approach to his Senate duties after a recent Wall Street Journal investigation.
The Journal reported that Fetterman has shown “little interest in doing the job beyond cultivating relationships with conservative media figures and advocating for Israel, according to interviews with more than a dozen former staffers and lawmakers, as well as text messages and other internal records.”
The Journal reported that Fetterman canceled a scheduled meeting with three paralyzed veterans, with staff citing a stomach illness. According to the report, Fetterman arrived at his office less than an hour later for a Fox News interview about Israel and the Iran war.
The Journal also detailed other incidents where constituents or state leaders traveled to D.C. to meet with senators and representatives only for Fetterman to cancel at the last minute or refuse to meet with them. The story reported that Fetterman declined to attend the funeral of three police officers killed near his hometown because he considered the event too long.
The Journal also reported that Fetterman has increasingly cultivated relationships with conservative media while becoming more isolated from fellow Democrats.
Despite the market's move following Wednesday's convention appearance, Fetterman continues to publicly reject the possibility of leaving the Democratic Party.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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