U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is dominating the market ahead of Tuesday's Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, with James Fishback trading at 1%. However, traders are also forecasting how Fishback will perform overall.
Currently, he is forecast to earn 10.3% of the vote in Tuesday's GOP primary.
Fishback’s campaign
Fishback has faced an uphill battle throughout his campaign.
Decision Desk HQ’s Geoffrey Skelley wrote that Donalds picked up President Donald Trump's endorsement in February, even before the congressman formally entered the race.
“If elected, Donalds would make history as the first Black governor in Florida’s history,” Skelley wrote. “And he has built a huge war chest, as his campaign and allied PAC had raised a whopping $111 million as [of] mid-August.”
CNN’s Steve Contorno wrote that DeSantis has complicated the race a bit by refusing to endorse any of the 11 candidates running in the GOP primary. Even though Donalds holds a comfortable lead in the market and polls, DeSantis' refusal to endorse a candidate may have given Fishback more room to attract attention.
Fishback has also made several controversial statements about Donalds during his primary campaign. His words have shone a national spotlight on his primary run. He has also faced legal challenges to his campaign during the Florida primary. WLRN Public Media’s Jake Shore wrote that Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who is also running for the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, sued Fishback and his campaign in June, alleging that Fishback failed to meet the state’s seven-year residency minimum to run for office in Florida. A judge in the Leon County Circuit Court ruled in favor of Fishback, allowing him to stay in the race.
“Collins cited mortgage documents in Washington, D.C., where Fishback had a home and certified it was his primary residence to receive a tax benefit, and records showing Fishback voted in D.C. in 2020,” Shore wrote. “The judge, however, was unmoved by those arguments.”
Who will win the Republican nomination?
Traders overwhelmingly expect Donalds to win Tuesday's Republican gubernatorial primary. Donalds is priced at 99%, followed by Fishback at 1%, and Collins at 0.5%.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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