Kalshi traders are pricing a clear favorite as to which candidate will win the Republican nomination for Florida’s governor’s race.
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads the market for the Florida Republican gubernatorial nominee at 98.4%, followed by James Fishback at 1.1% and Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 0.4%.
What do the polls say?
Polling data is suggesting a similar outcome.
The New York Times shows Donalds leading in all the major polls by an average margin of about 30 points in the last month of data. The latest poll from Quantus Insights shows Donalds leading with 50 percent of eligible voters.
Donalds and Democratic frontrunner David Jolly have also received more public campaign financing than their respective primary opponents. CBS News Miami reported that Donalds received nearly $823,000 in donations and Jolly received more than $1.66 million in donations from the voter-approved public campaign finance program. Collins has only received $177,000 from the same voter-approved fund.
The Republican campaign
Donalds may be the clear favorite, but his campaign has faced resistance from outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has declined to endorse him.
CNN’s Steve Contomo reported that DeSantis cannot run for another consecutive term because of the state's term limits.
In fact, DeSantis has been speaking out against Donalds and his candidacy for governor.
“DeSantis has refused to hand the baton to Donalds and has spent months publicly and privately arguing the Naples congressman is unfit to replace him,” Contomo wrote. “He has even shared his reservations directly with [President Donald Trump], according to a person close to DeSantis with knowledge of a recent conversation between the two.”
President Trump has publicly endorsed Donalds, while DeSantis has declined to endorse a successor. At the same time, DeSantis has also criticized or declined to support some of Donalds' Republican rivals.
DeSantis’ decision not to back a candidate has created a “vacuum” that’s become “one of the nastiest GOP primary fights of the midterm season.”
The Democratic primary
Traders are also pricing a clear favorite in the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary market.
Jolly leads the pack at 98.6%, followed by State Rep. Angie Nixon at 1% and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at 0.1%.
The General Election
Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles won re-election in 1994. Kalshi's general election market reflects that history: traders give the Republican nominee an 81% chance of winning the governorship in November, compared to 22% for the Democratic nominee.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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