France vs. England World Cup third-place odds: one last chance for Mbappé, one last game for Deschamps

The 2026 FIFA World Cup third-place match kicks off Saturday (5 p.m. ET) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, where France and England meet a game after both fell one win short of Sunday's final.

Neither side wanted to be here. France was dominant for six straight matches before Spain shut them out 2-0 in the semifinal, and England let a lead slip in the final 10 minutes of a 2-1 loss to Argentina.

But there's more on the line than pride: it's Didier Deschamps' final match in charge of France, and it's the last chance for Kylian Mbappé to catch up in the Golden Boot race. He's tied with Lionel Messi at eight goals apiece, but Messi's two assists in Argentina's semifinal win now give him the tiebreaker edge, with one more game left to add to it.

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Beyond the bronze medal, goals here count toward the official Golden Boot, a meaningful subplot since Mbappé and Messi are tied at eight goals apiece. Messi held the tiebreaker lead for most of the tournament, but his two assists in Argentina's semifinal win over England (sending home both Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez) have now given him four assists to Mbappé's three, putting Messi ahead on the tiebreaker with only Sunday's final left to play.

That makes Saturday effectively Mbappé's last chance to reclaim the Golden Boot outright. He needs to move ahead on goals, since an assist alone wouldn't erase Messi's tiebreaker advantage. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, both on six goals for England, are also still technically in the race. For Deschamps, it's a farewell match after 14 years leading Les Bleus to two finals and a title; for Thomas Tuchel, a win would give England its best World Cup finish since lifting the trophy in 1966. A loss means a repeat of the fourth-place finishes from 1990 and 2018.

Ahead of kickoff, Kalshi traders give France a 70% chance to win the third-place match. England checks in at 31%.

France won all six of its matches heading into the semifinal, outscoring opponents 16-2, topping Group I unbeaten, needing a VAR penalty to beat Paraguay in the round of 16, and dismantling Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinal. That run ended emphatically against Spain: Mikel Oyarzabal's 22nd-minute penalty and Pedro Porro's 58th-minute strike sealed a 2-0 semifinal loss in which France barely tested a defense that has now allowed just one goal in seven games.

Mbappé remains the headline act regardless, with eight goals and three assists, and is expected to lead the line one last time under Deschamps, who's already confirmed this is his final match as France manager. Saturday will be his 27th match in charge at a World Cup, extending the all-time record he set against Spain on Tuesday. Ousmane Dembélé, fresh off a Ballon d'Or-caliber club season, and Michael Olise's tournament-high five assists round out an attack that remains one of the tournament's most dangerous despite Tuesday's result.

England reached the semifinals the hard way: a come-from-behind win over DR Congo, a dramatic 3-2 comeback win over Mexico while down to 10 men, and an extra-time win over Norway on the back of a Jude Bellingham brace. Argentina ended the run in painful fashion. Anthony Gordon put England ahead in the 55th minute, only for Enzo Fernández's 85th-minute strike and a 92nd-minute Lautaro Martínez header, both created by Messi, to complete a 2-1 comeback.

Tuchel has been candid that this isn't the game anyone wanted to play, and reports suggest both Kane and Bellingham, who have barely rested across seven matches, could be rotated out to give Ollie Watkins and others a chance to start. Kane sits on six goals for the tournament, still mathematically alive in the Golden Boot race but needing a multi-goal performance in Miami to close the gap on Mbappé and Messi.

Saturday's match is effectively the undercard to Sunday's final at MetLife Stadium, where Spain is priced at 59.5% to beat Argentina and win the tournament outright, with Argentina at 41.2%.

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