France takes on Iraq today in Philadelphia, looking to become the first Group I side to clinch a spot in the round of 32. Iraq, fresh off a 4-1 defeat to Norway, needs at least a point to keep its tournament hopes alive.
Kalshi traders give France a 92% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 7% and Iraq at 3%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
What's at stake
France enters with three points on the board, while Iraq sits at zero after Norway's 4-1 win. Norway leads Group I on goal difference over France, with both teams level on points. A win today would put France firmly in control of the group with a match to spare, while a draw or loss would leave the door open for Norway, Senegal and even Iraq to crowd the standings heading into the final round of matches.
France's strong start
France opened its tournament with a 3-1 win over Senegal, with Kylian Mbappé scoring twice in the second half after a quiet opening 45 minutes. The brace made him France's all-time leading scorer at the men's World Cup, surpassing Just Fontaine's tournament record, and pulled him within two goals of Miroslav Klose's all-time World Cup scoring record, according to Opta.
Didier Deschamps made just two substitutions against Senegal and didn't make his first until the 80th minute, suggesting he's comfortable leaning on the same group again today. A win would lock up France's spot in the knockout stage with a game still to play.
Iraq's uphill battle
Iraq is back at the World Cup for the first time since 1986, and the welcome back was rough: a 4-1 loss to Norway in which Erling Haaland scored twice. Striker Aymen Hussein pulled Iraq level in the first half with a header, becoming just the third player in World Cup history to score at both ends of a match after an own goal later in the contest.
Iraq head coach Graham Arnold isn't changing his approach despite the lopsided history. "I've always been a coach that goes out expecting to win," he told Field Level Media ahead of the match. Striker Aymen Hussein, who scored Iraq's lone goal against Norway, said through an interpreter that facing France's defense would "beef up our energy."
The bigger picture
Despite trailing Norway in the actual standings, France remains the heavy favorite to win Group I outright, while Iraq's odds sit under 1%. A win today would tighten the gap further, even with the head-to-head meeting against Norway still to come on the final matchday.
Beyond today's match, France's odds to win the World Cup outright sit at 19.8% on Kalshi, the best mark of any team in the field and ahead of Spain and Argentina. Iraq's odds of a deep tournament run remain effectively at zero, though simply avoiding a loss today would represent a meaningful step for a program that hasn't won a World Cup match in over a decade.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
