Spain's semifinal victory over France dramatically reshaped Kalshi's Golden Boot market, sending Argentina’s Lionel Messi past France’s Kylian Mbappé as the new favorite.
Traders drove up Messi’s price on the market by 26 points to 58% while Mbappé fell by 28 points to 32%.
Spain vs. France
Spain defeated France earlier today and also reduced Mbappé’s chance of picking up the Golden Boot.
Spain defeated France 2-0 in Arlington, Texas to advance to the World Cup final. ESPN reported that Spain “looked like a well-oiled machine as they were strong in possession of the ball and did a great job of limiting the impact of France stars Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé to take a 1-0 lead into the break.”
Mikel Oyarzabal scored the first goal off a penalty following a foul on Lamine Yamal to give Spain the lead.
France’s situation worsened when center back William Saliba left the field with a back injury in the 30th minute, replaced by Crystal Palace’s Maxence Lacroix.
The second half brought more of the same, with France stifled by Spain’s pressing all over the field and denied by several key saves from Unai Simón.
Pedro Porro scored the second and decisive goal when he broke free of his marker on a smooth team move and finished past Mike Maignan to seal the win for Spain.
Mbappé’s frustration boiled over near the final whistle. In the 86th minute, he rushed toward Simón just as the goalkeeper was bending down to pick up the ball. The two collided, sending Simón to the ground and earning Mbappé a yellow card.
The race for the Golden Boot
Even though Messi has moved ahead of Mbappé on the Kalshi market, Mbappé still leads in the race to win the Golden Boot. Both have eight goals each, but Mbappé has three assists over Messi’s two.
With both players set to appear once more, Kalshi traders now favor Messi to overtake Mbappé and finish as the tournament's leading scorer, despite Mbappé holding the current tiebreaker on assists.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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