France vs. Spain semifinal odds: Traders make Les Bleus the favorite at 58%

The 2026 World Cup semifinals open on Tuesday as France and Spain meet at Dallas Stadium for a place in Sunday's final at MetLife Stadium. It is a rematch of the 2024 European Championship semifinals, which Spain won 2-1, and a meeting between the tournament's two most complete squads. France leads all teams in goals scored, while Spain has allowed the fewest.

Kalshi traders have France as the slight favorite to advance, while the World Cup winner market has tracked these two teams near the top since before the tournament kicked off.

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The winner advances to the World Cup final on Sunday, July 19, at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. A French victory would make Les Bleus only the third nation to reach three consecutive World Cup finals, joining Brazil (1994–2002) and West Germany (1982–1990).

A Spain win would see the reigning European champions become only the fifth reigning Euro holder to advance to a World Cup final, and only the third side, after 1974 West Germany and 2010 Spain itself, to have a realistic shot at completing that double. Sitting in the opposite semifinal are England and Argentina, who meet Wednesday in Atlanta.

France has not dropped a point in six matches. Les Bleus topped Group I before eliminating Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco in the knockout rounds, with Kylian Mbappé among the tournament's most dangerous attackers throughout.

The quarterfinal against Morocco was clinical: Mbappé recovered from a first-half penalty miss to bend a right-footed curler into the corner in the 60th minute for his eighth goal of the tournament, then assisted Ousmane Dembélé's fifth six minutes later. Les Bleus held a 21-4 advantage in total shots and an 8-1 edge on target, generating 3.04 expected goals against Morocco's 0.14.

Mbappé now sits at 20 career World Cup goals, one behind Lionel Messi's all-time record. Dembélé, meanwhile, has five goals of his own, the two forwards becoming the first pair of teammates to each score five or more at a single World Cup since Brazil's Ronaldo and Rivaldo in 2002. As ESPN noted, the squad has "the tournament's best attack" heading into Tuesday's match.

Spain's route to the final four has been defined by defensive solidity and late drama. La Roja opened the tournament with a draw against Cape Verde before winning every match since, keeping clean sheets through five consecutive games before Belgium's Charles De Ketelaere finally broke through in the quarterfinal. That ended Unai Simón's run of 650 minutes without conceding, breaking the previous World Cup goalkeeping shutout record.

The quarterfinal itself was decided in the 88th minute. Mikel Merino, on the pitch for fewer than two minutes, turned home a rebound after substitute goalkeeper Senne Lammens, pressed into service following Thibaut Courtois's injury, spilled a Pau Cubarsi drive. It was the second consecutive match in which Merino scored a decisive late goal from the bench. Winger Lamine Yamal was bullish afterward, telling reporters after Spain's win, per ESPN: "If France should fear anyone, it's us. We have knocked them out before."

Yamal, who turned 19 on Monday, has one goal in six appearances this tournament but has been a constant threat, operating behind a Spain side that has now set a team record of 36 straight competitive matches unbeaten. The two nations also met in the 2025 Nations League semifinals, with Spain winning that one 5-4.

Wednesday's second semifinal in Atlanta pits England against Argentina in one of the sport's most storied rivalries, renewed for the first time at a World Cup since 2002. Kalshi traders give England a 55% chance to advance, with Argentina at 46%.

In the tournament winner market, England sits at 22% and Argentina at 18%, meaning the winner of Wednesday's match will enter the final as a meaningful underdog to whichever European side emerges from Dallas on Tuesday.

Whoever advances from Tuesday's semifinal is likely to become the outright tournament favorite. France currently sits at 38% in the World Cup winner market, with Spain at 23%, the two highest probabilities remaining.

England and Argentina, who meet Wednesday, check in at 22% and 18% respectively. A French win consolidates their lead; a Spain victory collapses the gap considerably and would see La Roja enter the final as a narrow favorite regardless of who they face. For more on how this matchup looked before the tournament began, see our earlier France vs. Spain odds preview.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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