Earlier this year, a record-breaking 43-day government shutdown finally came to a halt when four Democratic senators crossed the aisle.
However, many key issues that catalyzed the stoppage, such as the future of ObamaCare, remain unresolved. That poses a vital question for Americans headed into 2026: is the U.S. on the verge of another government shutdown?
January 31 looms large
Currently, Kalshi prices in a 38% chance of a shutdown by January’s end, a likelihood that has hovered just below 40% throughout the past four days. Notably, we saw the price climb to 46-cents as recently as December 11, and the current peak of 50.2% for “Yes” was back in mid November.
But the market has stabilized since then, and volume is now north of $297,000.
Lapse in appropriations
As previously mentioned, tension remains between the Democrats and the GOP. The most hotly debated topic is whether or not the Affordable Care Act will have its tax credits extended prior to February 2026.
According to Kalshi’s traders, there is only a 23% chance of that happening.
In contrast to the most recent government stoppage, Democrats have stated a willingness to once again resort to hardball tactics.
“I think we hold the line this time, absolutely. We have to,” Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) stated. “And this time, I hope the senators have a little more courage to hold the line.”
Naturally, the GOP also understands the magnitude of the situation.
“Everyone realizes, under current law, another shutdown could occur on Jan. 30,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) said.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) also chimed in on the matter, explaining, “We need to deal, as Republicans, with the health care issue. We just can’t let the ObamaCare thing lapse and do nothing, and people have no health care or have to pay double.”
Rep. Vargas maintains hope that a proper deal can be agreed upon by the two sides.
“It’s not a rocket that’s gone away; it’s just a law, so you just change the damn law,” stated Vargas.
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