Government shutdown breaks record as traders see more pain ahead

The government shutdown officially became the longest in U.S. history on Tuesday, reaching its 35th day and surpassing the previous record from 2019. As the standoff grinds on, Kalshi traders currently predict the impasse could last nearly two more weeks.

Kalshi’s “How long will the government shutdown last?” market now forecasts a duration of about 47 days, implying the shutdown will stretch into mid-November. The market assigns a 52% chance that it lasts more than 46 days, with probabilities falling to 34% for more than 50 days and 17% for more than 60.

According to CBS News, the record-breaking milestone came late Tuesday evening when the Senate failed for the 14th time to advance a House-passed continuing resolution. The 54–44 vote left federal agencies shuttered and hundreds of thousands of employees still without pay.

While both parties are discussing potential paths forward, divisions remain deep. Some Senate Republicans have floated a plan to pair short-term funding with long-term appropriations bills, but Democrats continue to insist on including measures such as extended health insurance tax credits. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he believes “people realize this has gone on long enough,” though no agreement has been reached.

At a Wednesday breakfast meeting with Senate Republicans, President Trump repeated his call to eliminate the Senate filibuster, arguing that the 60-vote threshold is preventing the GOP from ending the shutdown and moving legislation. The idea faces little support within his party, and Kalshi’s filibuster market still prices just a 27% chance of any rule change this year.

Trump also linked the ongoing shutdown to Republican losses in Tuesday’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia, saying it had become a political liability. The White House, meanwhile, spent part of the day clarifying that, despite the shutdown, it would comply with a court order to release limited Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits after confusion over earlier statements.

The fallout from the prolonged closure is starting to show across the economy. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that if the shutdown continues, some parts of U.S. airspace may need to close due to air traffic control staffing shortages. Airlines for America estimates that more than 3 million passengers have been affected by cancellations or delays.

However, traders appear to believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. Kalshi’s “Will the U.S. government reopen this year?” market remains elevated at 94%, suggesting confidence that Congress will eventually strike a deal before 2026, but not immediately.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Traders are signaling that while a resolution is likely, Washington’s longest-ever shutdown may still have more than a week to run before an agreement takes hold.

Sources: CBS News, Nov. 4, 2025; The New York Times, Nov. 5, 2025.
Image Source: Andy Feliciotti

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