Shutdown markets predict narrow House vote to reopen government

Prediction markets are signaling that the record-long government shutdown may finally be nearing its end, with traders now forecasting that Congress will vote this week to send a funding package to President Donald Trump’s desk.

According to Kalshi’s “How long will the government shutdown last?” market, traders expect just over a 43-day closure, implying a resolution within days. The probability of the shutdown lasting beyond 45 days has dropped to just 6%, while contracts beyond 47 days are trading under 3%.

That forecast tightened sharply after the Senate approved a bipartisan funding deal late Sunday night, marking the first real breakthrough in six weeks. The measure would fund the government through January 30, provide new security money for Congress, and guarantee a future vote on the Affordable Care Act subsidy extensions that had divided Democrats.

Traders reacted immediately to signs of progress. Market volume spiked above $60 million, reflecting both heightened speculation and relief that the gridlock might finally be easing. The average forecast for the shutdown’s total length dropped nearly two full days since the start of the week, underscoring how sensitive traders are to each headline coming out of Capitol Hill.

Kalshi’s House shutdown vote timing market now gives a 97% chance that lawmakers will vote on the funding bill before Nov. 15, consistent with both CNN and Fox News reporting that Speaker Mike Johnson has told members to return to Washington for a Wednesday session.

Fox reported that Johnson urged Republicans to “begin returning to the Hill immediately,” with a vote possible Wednesday afternoon. CNN said the House Rules Committee will take up the bill Tuesday to clear the way for floor action. If those plans hold, it would be the chamber’s first legislative vote in nearly two months.

The procedural choreography also matches the Senate’s push to move the package quickly. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that “the votes are there to proceed” and urged both parties to act before the end of the week.

Markets also show that traders expect the funding measure to pass by a thin margin. Kalshi’s shutdown vote-count market shows the most likely range between 217 and 220 votes, just above the 218 needed for passage.

That forecast reflects the challenge facing Johnson, who leads a razor-thin GOP majority and must rely on at least a handful of Democratic crossover votes. The White House has already endorsed the Senate plan, calling it a “positive development,” but House Democrats are split on whether to back the deal. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has urged his caucus to oppose it unless it includes permanent health care subsidy extensions.

The companion market on “Who will vote for the next funding bill?” indicates a potential centrist coalition forming. Democrat Jared Golden is trading at 99% to support the measure, while Republicans Chip Roy and Mike Lawler sit at 95%. Democratic moderates Henry Cuellar and Josh Gottheimer are currently at 66% and 53%, respectively.

Over the weekend, Kalshi News described the markets as “pricing in an endgame to the record-breaking closure.” As the Senate made progress toward a bipartisan deal, traders expected the standoff to end within the week. Now, the mood in Washington has also shifted. After weeks of stalled negotiations, both parties now appear motivated to close the books before the Thanksgiving recess and calm the growing economic fallout from furloughs and delayed payments.

Kalshi traders are now forecasting:

If the markets are right, the shutdown, now in its 41st day, could end by Thursday, marking the first major bipartisan breakthrough of Trump’s second term and the swiftest market shift of the year on Kalshi.

Sources: CNN, Nov. 10, 2025; Fox News, Nov. 10, 2025; Kalshi News, Nov. 9, 2025.
Image Source: Gage Skidmore

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