South Carolina Republicans are voting Tuesday in the state's special U.S. Senate primary runoff, with Darline Graham leading Ralph Norman on Kalshi.
The market for the South Carolina Republican special primary winner shows Graham’s chances priced at 72%, followed by U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman at 28%.
What do the polls say?
While Kalshi traders give Graham a sizable advantage, the final poll of the race paints a tight picture.
The Hill reported that the final Trafalgar Group survey shows the race in a virtual dead heat, with 47.9% supporting Graham and 47.8% backing Norman. Another 4.4% remain undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
Graham entered the runoff after finishing first in the Aug. 11 special primary with 32.7% of the vote. Norman finished second with 24.6%, while neither candidate reached the majority required to secure the nomination outright.
Darline Graham
Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has received strong support from Republican leaders and PACs in South Carolina’s special election primary.
The New York Times reported that President Donald Trump provided a key endorsement for Graham’s campaign during her runoff campaign. He appeared in Myrtle Beach “to rally supporters and personally called high-level state officials to compel them to endorse Ms. Graham.”
Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. also spent more than $827,000 supporting Graham in the final stretch of the runoff. The Times reported that the super PAC “invested nearly $800,000 on phone calls on her behalf…nearly a third of the total the committee has spent this year.”
The runoff has also become a test of Trump's political influence in South Carolina after voters rejected some of his preferences in other races this year.
“On the line: The president’s credibility in a state that twice in the last six months has rejected his preferences,” The Times reported. “In June, voters discarded his first choice for governor, prompting him to make a second endorsement in the final stretch. And earlier this year, the Republican-held State Senate declined to take up a new congressional map backed by Mr. Trump and other national Republicans that would have eliminated South Carolina’s lone majority Black district, which is held by a Democrat.”
Ralph Norman
Norman has made Graham's lack of political experience one of his central arguments against her candidacy. Graham was appointed to serve the remainder of her brother's term following his death in July before announcing that she would seek a full six-year term.
Graham faced criticism for several responses on national security and foreign policy during the candidates' Aug. 18 debate. Norman called out Graham for her comments in interviews and during campaign appearances, especially since her late brother was known for being a foreign policy hawk on Capitol Hill.
The Associated Press published an interview with Norman in which he called out Graham for her comments.
“Imagine if I went to [head football coach] Dabo Swinney at Clemson and any of the coaches said, ‘Look, I got a prospect I want you to look at, and I want them to,” Norman said. “They can start. I want you to sign them up. They can start for the next six years.’ ‘What’s the qualifications?’ ‘They’re kin to Tom Brady.’ Tell me how that analogy doesn’t work here.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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