Voters in South Carolina will head to the polls on Tuesday to pick the Republican candidate for senator, and Kalshi traders have an idea of who will win the race.
Darline Graham leads the South Carolina Republican special Senate runoff market at 67%, followed by U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman at 34%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Graham's debate stumble
Graham's price fell following a debate performance that drew criticism over her answer to a national security question.
Graham was asked about national security, and her answer was met with an audible response from the audience.
“I’m not that informed on national security…but I do support the military,” Graham said.
The comment drew criticism from her opponent and critics of her campaign. She tried to amend her statement later in the debate, stating she was concerned about “troops” on the ground when it comes to Israel and the U.S.’s relationship.
The exchange followed Graham onto the campaign trail.
The Daily Beast’s Leigh Kimmins reported that during an appearance at a restaurant in Florence, South Carolina, a man asked, “Are there any concerns about credibility in the US Senate for someone who does not have the experience for issues like geopolitics and stuff like that?”
The man added, “How can we trust, as constituents, that you will make the right decision if you are not informed on national security positions at this time?”
Graham defended her response by saying she had been honest about her lack of national security expertise.
She also stumbled again when she was asked whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are national security issues for the United States.
“As I walk around this room and I ask people if you are concerned about Taiwan, they said they are concerned about the price of groceries. The price of gas. Rising healthcare costs.”
The New Republic’s Hafiz Rashid reported that Graham also addressed criticism that she had been handed her late brother's Senate seat when she appeared on NewsNation.
“I realize that I have to earn voters, so I’m working hard to do that,” Graham said.
President Trump's endorsement
Graham received a major boost when President Donald Trump traveled to South Carolina to campaign for her.
The Associated Press reported that President Trump appeared at a rally in Myrtle Beach and urged the crowd to get out and vote for Graham on Tuesday.
“You have to get out and vote,” President Trump said. “And we need every South Carolina patriot to go to the polls and vote for Darline Graham.”
President Trump also told the crowd that even though he’s not on the ballot, a vote for Graham would also show their support for his administration.
“So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” President Trump said. “Just come and vote. It’s so important. So just say that I’m on the ballot one more time. You got to say it, and you got to come out and vote.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Tim Scott
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
