Following Monday’s Politico report of sexual assault allegations against Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner, odds of the candidate leaving the race surged in Kalshi’s dropout market. At one point, Platner had a 96% chance of dropping out before July 14.
The deadline for him to withdraw and be replaced by another Democrat is July 13. The market has not wavered from a high chance of Platner dropping out, as the current chance of his dropping out before July 14 is 95%.
At one point on Monday, another, more granular dropout market also gave Platner an 89% chance of dropping out before July 9. Now, that chance is down to 61%.
Platner appears to be taking his time with the consequential decision. Reports indicate that the Platner campaign has been vocal in wanting a say on who a potential Platner replacement could be. Democratic leadership in Maine has pushed back on these actions.
On Tuesday, Maine Democratic Party Executive Director Devon Murphy-Anderson said that Platner and his team "have no role in determining our next Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, nor in determining what this process looks like."
Nationwide, major Democrats have withdrawn support for Platner, including Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand.
Wednesday morning, CNN reported that the Platner campaign is navigating exit strategies, with a decision expected to come via a video that has not yet been taped. The odds of Platner dropping out before July 9 spiked from 29% to 61% after the report, while the odds of Platner dropping out before July 10 spiked from 54% to 81%.
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