Happy Epstein House Vote Day!

Happy Epstein Files vote day to all who celebrate. After months of twists and turns, it’s finally here. It’s like Christmas come early for conspiracy theorists and Trump critics alike. And, much like the real Christmas, it will likely end in awkwardness, disappointment, and a fair amount of shouting.

Honestly, there’s probably a better chance of Santa dropping a Ferrari in your driveway than of this vote revealing anything damaging about the President any time soon.

But more on that later. For now, let’s take a look at what our traders think is in store in the short term.

(Click here to trade all of our Epstein-related markets.)

Last September, Kalshi’s Political Director Jaron Zhou wrote about how a special election in Arizona could unlock the Epstein files. And sure enough, the winner of that election, Adelita Grijalva, was the last signature needed for a discharge petition forcing a vote in the House to release the files.

And despite months of pushback and stalling (some of which was due to the government shutdown), a vote on releasing the files is now set for later this afternoon.

Despite spending months attacking the bill, which he repeatedly painted as a distraction and a “Democrat hoax,” President Trump was unable to convince enough members of his own party to vote against it.

Even a last-minute pressure campaign against MAGA representatives failed to turn the tide. But it did lead to a falling out between Trump and MAGA stalwart Marjorie Taylor Greene.

But earlier this week, after the writing was already on the wall, President Trump switched to a “If you can’t beat them, join them” approach, and urged Republican House members to vote in favor of the bill.

‘We have nothing to hide,’ the President said, after spending the past several months acting exactly like a man who had something to hide. Not to mention he can already order the files to be released at any time with or without congressional approval.

At any rate, now that Trump has given the green light, the question is no longer whether the bill will pass, but who will vote for it, and how many votes it will get.

In fact, so many Republicans now plan to vote for the bill that we had to add a new market with higher vote ranges. There is currently a nearly 50% chance that it will receive between 430 and 435 votes (out of a total of 435), and only a 50% chance that any ‘no’ vote is recorded.

With the House bill widely expected to pass, attention is now being focused on the Senate, which will also need to approve the bill.

Currently, there is an 88% chance that more than 77 senators will vote in favor of the bill. And President Trump says he will sign it if it passes.

Assuming both of those things come to pass, that should be the end of it, and we’ll have all of the DOJ’s Epstein files available "in a searchable and downloadable format" within 30 days, right?

Of course, it’s not that simple. As the BBC points out, the bill allows the attorney general to “withhold or redact portions of records that contain personal information that would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.” A constitutional law professor interviewed by the outlet also believes that the DOJ can redact certain files if they contain “law enforcement techniques” that it does not want in the public domain.

More importantly, the bill also allows the DOJ to "withhold documents that "jeopardize an active federal investigation or ongoing prosecution, provided that such withholding is narrowly tailored and temporary.”

And as it just so happens, late last week Attorney General Pam Bondi announced she would launch an investigation into former President Bill Clinton and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

So, if I had to guess, I’d say some of the Epstein files are going to be held back until at least 2029. But we’ll see.

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