Trump impeachment odds near ATH after Epstein email release

Kalshi markets lit up Wednesday as new revelations from the Jeffrey Epstein files and a pending House vote reignited speculation around President Donald Trump’s political future and a possible impeachment. The combination of fresh disclosures, a rapidly advancing Epstein bill, and sustained Democratic momentum in midterm markets has traders repricing risk across Trump-linked contracts.

Trump impeachment odds surged to an intraday high of 54%, its highest level since the 55% peak during April’s tariff turmoil. It later settled around 50% as traders weighed the fallout from newly released emails connecting Epstein to Trump and other public figures. The emails, published by House Democrats, include a 2011 message in which Epstein claimed Trump had “spent hours” at his house with one of his victims and “knew about the girls.”

The White House dismissed the release as a Democrat “hoax,” but Kalshi traders quickly priced in new legal and political pressure on the administration. The surge comes as Democrats on the House Oversight Committee push to declassify more than 23,000 documents from Epstein’s estate, an effort that now has the votes to reach the floor.

The Epstein Files Transparency Act, sponsored by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), has reached the crucial 218-signature threshold needed to bypass House leadership and trigger a vote. Freshman Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who will be sworn in Wednesday, is set to provide the decisive signature after weeks of delay during the government shutdown.

This development sent Kalshi’s Epstein bill market soaring to 60%, the highest level since launch. The market had hovered near 35% just a week earlier, when procedural uncertainty clouded the bill’s path.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has called the legislation “reckless,” warning that unredacted documents could expose victims’ identities. Still, the bipartisan effort has proven resilient, with several populist Republicans joining progressive Democrats in support.

Wednesday’s moves mark the culmination of a story that began months earlier. In September, Kalshi’s “How special elections could unlock the Epstein files” editorial noted that Grijalva’s Arizona victory might be the tipping point for the discharge petition.

Now, traders are revisiting related political markets, particularly those tied to Trump and House control, as potential spillover trades.

After this month’s Democratic victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, traders on Kalshi sharply raised the odds that Democrats will control the House after the 2026 midterms. The House control market now shows a 72% chance of a Democratic majority compared with 28% for Republicans. That is only slightly below the post-election high of 75% reached in early November.

Those results, which included major wins by Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, and Zohran Mamdani in New York, signaled to traders that Democratic coalitions are stabilizing ahead of 2026. As confidence in a Democratic takeover has grown, so have expectations that an opposition-led House would pursue more aggressive investigations and possibly impeachment proceedings against President Trump.

Traders link political control of the House directly to the likelihood of impeachment. This week’s odds spike came as traders priced in both the possibility of a Democratic majority and new legal exposure from the Epstein disclosures.

At the same time, the prospect of the House releasing thousands of pages of previously unseen materials has further fueled volatility across Trump-related markets.

Across Kalshi, traders are repricing political risk on multiple fronts, with impeachment odds near all-time highs, Epstein bill trades at record levels, and the House control market holding firmly in Democratic territory.

Together, those moves suggest that traders see the Epstein scandal and the shifting balance of power in Congress as intertwined catalysts for renewed political uncertainty heading into 2026.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Sources: NBC News, Nov. 12, 2025; The New York Times, Nov. 12, 2025; Kalshi News, Sept. 16, Nov. 4, and Nov. 12, 2025.

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