The race for the Heisman Trophy was wide open in August as we evaluated which quarterback might shine brightest, but returning top NFL Draft prospect Jeremiah Smith's record-setting season has been hard to ignore.
Even so, as we’re just 10 days from November, Smith does have someone nipping at his heels, and another Buckeyes loss could make this race neck-and-neck.
So, here’s how Kalshi's college football traders see the current Heisman Trophy odds.
For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
Heisman Trophy Odds
Kalshi's Current Top 10 in Heisman Trophy Odds:
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (41%)
Darian Mensah, Miami FL (23%)
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (9%)
Malachi Toney, Miami FL (6%)
CJ Carr, Notre Dame (4%)
Jesse Legree, Oregon State (4%)
Bear Bachmeier, BYU (3%)
Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State (2%)
Gunner Stockton, Georgia (2%)
Jayden Maiava, USC (1%)
Jeremiah Smith
Jeremiah Smith (41%) has been a generational NFL prospect since posting 1,315 yards as a true freshman. At his school, simply earning playing time at that age is a mammoth feat.
The Ohio State star’s swan song at the school has gone according to plan — and then some. He’s second in FBS in receiving yards (984) and touchdowns (12), which is absurd given a level of competition that’s included three ranked squads already.
His “bad game” to cause this week’s dip was 4 catches for 68 yards and a key touchdown in the Buckeyes’ win over #6 Indiana. That’s a career day for a lot of college wideouts.
If anything, I think market skepticism of Smith has more to do with the injury to his quarterback, Julian Sayin. That could hurt his counting stats, and if the Buckeyes lose a couple of contests against what is a brutal schedule down the stretch, it becomes harder to justify giving him the hardware.
Darian Mensah
If we’re handing the trophy out to someone else, it’s hard not to look toward a Miami Hurricane.
#1 Miami (FL) just cleared one of its two toughest remaining foes, Florida State, in double overtime on Saturday. Darian Mensah (23%) was a brilliant part of the win, tossing 326 yards and 3 scores.
He’s been excellent all season. His 89.4 QBR, a comprehensive ESPN stat for quarterbacking that includes rushing efficiency, leads all of FBS. He’s posted 18 touchdowns to just 1 interception.
The problem for the Heisman campaigns of both he and wide receiver Malachi Toney’s bids to become the first Miami winner of the trophy since 1992 might be each other. Some would argue that Toney, with electric speed that has resulted in 758 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, gets a huge chunk of Mensah’s success.
The lone real challenge left on their schedule? A visit to South Bend against #4 Notre Dame. The vibes could come crashing down if he struggles mightily against an elite Irish secondary.
Trinidad Chambliss
Trinidad Chambliss (9%) peaked as the favorite for the Heisman (22%) on September 19th, which followed #7 Ole Miss’s landmark, public revenge against Lane Kiffin and LSU.
A loss the following week to Florida sent the talented quarterback right back to the rest of the pack. But, the Rebels have stabilized with consecutive wins, and Chambliss is not short on opportunities to make a statement. He visits #19 Texas this weekend and hosts #5 Georgia in November.
However, the problem the SEC has in the College Football Playoff picture is the same as this one. The conference keeps cannibalizing itself, and it’ll be tough to justify giving the Heisman to the quarterback of a 9-3 season with Smith’s record-setting campaign on the board.
It feels like Chambliss might have to run the table to snatch this trophy, and Ole Miss will need to take it one week at a time. They’re 3.5-point underdogs in Austin this Saturday.
Best of the Rest
CJ Carr (4%) saw his odds dip after Notre Dame’s loss to BYU, but he was nearly the hero with a 70.4 QBR and two methodical fourth-quarter drives that might have won the game if not for poor officiating. That won’t be forgotten if Carr and the Irish can trounce the Hurricanes; Mensah and Toney’s shine might go right to this market.
Though a true longshot to actually win, Jesse Legree (4%) from Oregon State is having an even more special season than Jeremiah Smith. The true freshman (!) is tearing up the Pac-12 for 1,040 receiving yards and 14 scrimmage touchdowns, which both outpace Smith. The problem? It is the Pac-12, and Oregon State has already lost to two ranked teams. A third, with #21 Boise State, looms that might have CFP implications.
On the right side of that BYU win, Bear Bachmeier (3%) is a dual-threat, do-it-all force for the Cougars who leads the team in passing (9) and rushing (6) touchdowns. Don't discount him in this market when, if Brigham Young were to run the table, it would be through monumental contests visiting #10 Utah and the Big 12 Championship.
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