We’re announcing a contest to give away one billion dollars to anyone who makes a perfect bracket, to demonstrate a lesson in probability. If no one hits perfect (which is almost impossible to do - more on that below), we’ll give one million dollars to the next best bracket and one million dollars to two nonprofits we love.
In 2014, Warren Buffett backed a $1B perfect-bracket challenge with Quicken Loans. No one finished perfect - the best run didn’t even make it out of the first round.
So, why is a perfect bracket so hard to achieve?
Because it requires correctly predicting the outcome of all 63 games in the tournament. If every game were a simple 50/50 coin flip, the odds of a perfect bracket would be about 1 in 9.2 quintillion (2⁶³), and even with expert knowledge, the probability remains astronomically small because upsets and unpredictable performances happen every year.
To put this into perspective, you are more likely to be struck by lightning than create the perfect bracket. Your odds are roughly equivalent to searching for one grain of sand from all of Earth’s beaches and deserts…and getting it right on the first try.
Because of the huge number of games and the chaos of the tournament - where underdogs regularly beat top seeds - a perfect bracket has never been publicly verified, making it one of the most difficult prediction challenges in sports.
That’s exactly why Kalshi is running this contest: to show how probability works differently in different scenarios. You probably won’t win this contest. But prediction markets aren’t the same: they let you trade on ongoing probabilistic assessments in real time, and develop strategies to better monetize your math and conclusions in an active marketplace.
Here’s how the billion-dollar bracket challenge works:
Go to the Kalshi app or website to enter: kalshi.com/billion-dollar-bracket
Create an account following the steps on the app or website
Once you have an account, it is free to enter - you don’t need to trade or deposit, just create your bracket (one bracket per person/account)
Like all accounts at Kalshi, age verification is required: you must be 18 or older to participate. To participate you must be a resident of the US. Other state or local restrictions may apply, and the contest is not available to residents of Florida or New York
The billion-dollar prize is financially backed by SIG Parametrics, LLC, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies
Prizes:
$1B prize for a perfect bracket
$1M guaranteed for the best-scoring bracket
See the full rules, available here, for more details
We’re also proud to partner with mentoring nonprofit iMentor, granting them $500k as part of this challenge. iMentor builds relationships that equip students from first-generation backgrounds to navigate the complexities of financial literacy and career readiness. And we’re also giving $500k to Devin Booker’s charity, Starting Five, which supports local Arizona youth and family organizations.
We hope you enjoy the bracket challenge. Here’s to defying the odds!