For the first time in his career, Ben Shelton is headed to a Grand Slam final.
The big-serving American defeated Frances Tiafoe in four sets to earn a berth in Sunday’s US Open men’s singles final against Alexander Zverev.
Should he win, Shelton will be the first American man to win a Grand Slam singles final since 2003 when Andy Roddick won the US Open.
Kalshi traders price Shelton at 43% compared to 57% for the favorite, Alexander Zverev.
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Zverev vs. Shelton Odds: Head-to-head favors the German
Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev have previously played five times on tour, including twice on outdoor hard courts. All five of those matches have been won by Zverev, who has only lost one of the 11 sets they’ve played against each other.
Their two most recent matches came in 2025, with the German winning in straight-sets on indoor hard courts at the ATP finals, and even more comfortably in the US Open tune up event at Cincinnati, where he won 6-2, 6-2 in the quarterfinal round.
But this year, circumstances are different for both players. Zverev, long burdened as the “best player to never win a Grand Slam,” was able to shake that title in June 2026 when he hoisted the trophy at Roland Garros.
And Shelton, historically one of the poorest returners among top players, has begun to flip the script, noting himself that his improvements in return of serve and stability within rallies has made him a much better player and bigger threat. He’ll need to level it up even more to break Zverev.
In their five matchups to date, Shelton has only managed to create five break point chances in total, converting just one. In their three most recent meetings, he only generated one break point chance, which he was unable to convert.
Sunday will mark their first ever Grand Slam meeting.
Shelton has faced the tougher test in path to finals
Though Zverev scraped through his first two rounds, his path to the finals hasn’t required a signature clash nor a matchup with any man ranked inside the top-20. Nevertheless, the 6-foot-6 German has taken care of business, not dropping a set since his second round encounter.
Shelton, on the other hand, needed to find his way through a much more difficult path, one that included dangerous floaters like Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas, and ranked foes like tournament favorite Carlos Alcaraz and fellow American Frances Tiafoe.
In the final clash, Kalshi traders are expecting a tight affair. At the time of writing, traders price the odds of more than 42.5 games, the equivalent of more than three full tiebreak sets, at 52%.
At least one tiebreaker has been played in three of their five matches, with the pair among the game’s biggest and best servers. The rolling 52-week statistics make Shelton and Zverev second and fourth, respectively, in serve rating.
U.S. Open final odds, key details
While Ben Shelton will be the overwhelming crowd favorite on Sunday, Alexander Zverev is favorite to win the match according to Kalshi traders.
Zverev is priced at 57% to lift the US Open trophy for the first time. Shelton’s odds are trading around 43% on Saturday morning, up considerably from the start of the tournament when he was priced at just 5%.
The men’s final will take place inside Arthur Ashe Stadium at 2:00pm ET on Sunday.
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Image Source: Darren Carroll, USTA
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