The favorite in Kalshi's volatile Los Angeles mayoral market has changed for the second time in less than 24 hours.
Kalshi's market now shows City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 51%, compared with 48% for incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.
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Why is Bass behind Raman?
Bass briefly regained the market lead following the announcement of a utility bill relief plan, but Raman overtook her again less than a day later.
The Associated Press reported that Bass' problems with voters extend beyond high water bills. Voters have grown tired of the increasing homelessness problem despite the billions spent to combat it, the Palisades Fire that "caught the fire department unprepared," dwindling Hollywood jobs as studios move to other cities for filming locations, and a city budget that only seems to get bigger with each passing year.
The switch in support to Raman may be mirroring a trend that started with the New York City mayoral election.
“At issue is whether voters want to stick with the mayor or pivot to the political left with Raman and follow New York’s lead, where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor,” The AP reported.
Raman also picked up a key endorsement while others seem hesitant to back Bass for another term.
KABC reported that County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath threw her support behind Raman's campaign on Tuesday. Horvath is the only member of the five-person Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors to endorse Raman, while the other four members support Bass.
The Los Angeles Times reported that former Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso expressed concerns about Raman's proposal to replace LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell but stopped short of endorsing Bass. Rick Caruso, who lost to Bass in the 2022 election and became one of her biggest critics following the Palisades fire, expressed concerns about Raman winning the election a week after Raman talked about firing McDonnell.
“In comparison, Councilwoman Raman has made statements that we should all ask for an explanation to,” Caruso said. “I do show extreme concern when a candidate is talking about firing a chief of police.”
Caruso offered a more favorable assessment of Bass but did not explicitly endorse her reelection campaign, saying that “she’s done her work, and she’s worked with the team, and I compliment this.”
The latest endorsements and polling add to an increasingly competitive mayoral contest, while the Kalshi market continues to fluctuate between the two candidates ahead of Election Day.
What do the polls say?
According to the New York Times, a new poll shows Raman with a sizable lead over Bass.
A poll from McLaughlin & Associates found Raman leading Bass 47% to 39% among likely voters, an 8-percentage-point margin.
California governor's race
The California governor's race presents a stark contrast, with Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra holding a commanding lead in the Kalshi market.
Becerra's price in the California governor's winner market reached an all-time high of 97%, compared with 3.4% for Republican Steve Hilton.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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