The Los Angeles mayoral race has a new frontrunner on the Kalshi mayoral election market.
Karen Bass, who is running for a second consecutive term, has recaptured the lead in the race to run the country's second-largest city. She now has a 56% chance of winning, an increase of 5.9 percentage points in the last 24 hours.
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City Councilmember Nithya Raman, who has the endorsement of the Democratic Socialists of America, trails at 44% after being the favorite for the past month, according to Kalshi’s traders.
The election has been highly competitive with the lead changing hands before. Kalshi's traders favored Bass at the start of the race, until Raman overtook her in March 2026. Bass briefly regained the lead in May 2026 but Raman moved ahead again in September 2026.
Providing relief
Bass's improved standing comes as she announced relief for Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) customers struggling with high utility bills, per a Tuesday statement from her office.
“Over the past few months, Los Angeles has endured multiple punishing heat waves. Running our air conditioners has been a necessity, and for too many Angelenos, the resulting increase in utility bills is a real burden,” Bass said. “No Angeleno should have to choose between staying cool and paying their bills. I'm committed to making sure that never happens.”
Her relief plan has four parts: letting LADWP customers pay what they can afford, asking the LADWP Board to pause shutoffs for the rest of the year, improving residents’ awareness on conserving energy, and encouraging customers to enroll in a program that averages bills over 12 months.
Residents of Los Angeles face challenges beyond heat waves and rising affordability costs, including street homelessness and wildfire responsiveness. Angelenos have long criticized Bass for traveling abroad as the Palisades and Eaton fires began in 2025.
Despite her increased odds, Bass is behind Raman in polling. 39% of likely voters favor Raman and 28% prefer Bass, according to a September poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times. Meanwhile, 33% of likely voters have yet to settle on a preference.
Backed by the Democratic establishment, the incumbent mayor has received endorsements from Governor Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Angelenos, like all California voters, will also weigh in on a proposed tax on the state's richest residents, which will surface on the November 2026 ballot as Proposition 40. If it passes, the state would levy a one-time 5% tax on taxpayers with assets over $1 billion.
Traders have given the proposed tax a 25% chance of passing, down from almost 34% at the beginning of the month.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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