Despite reports Tuesday that LeBron James has narrowed his focus to Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia, Kalshi traders still have Golden State at 25%, holding firm despite reports that they have slipped outside the apparent top tier of his free agency decision.
Cleveland still leads at 42% on Kalshi's market. Miami sits third at 17%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NBA.
Golden State
ESPN's Shams Charania reported Tuesday that James' focus has shifted to Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia -- with Golden State and Minnesota now on the periphery. But Kalshi traders haven't moved off Golden State, keeping them at 25% despite the news.
Golden State has made their pitch as aggressively as any team in the race. ClutchPoints' Brett Siegel reported that Draymond Green and James recently vacationed together in Puerto Rico, with Green making sure to "lay out every possible reason one of his best friends in the league should join forces with him and Stephen Curry in San Francisco."
The meeting stood out because most teams have been routing their pitches to James through agent Rich Paul rather than going direct.
When asked at the American Century Championship whether he had personally reached out to James, Curry deflected. "Stay out of my personal business," he told reporters with a smile, declining to confirm or deny direct contact. He did, however, acknowledge the appeal of a late-career pairing.
“Him going into his 24th season, me going into my 18th, the battles we’ve had, that would be such a unique story in [pro-basketball] history, in sports history,” Curry told reporters. “But a little premature right now to talk about it.”
Even Golden State’s head coach Steve Kerr is considered a plus for attracting James to their team. Kerr coached James and Curry when they competed for the U.S. in the 2024 Olympics.
Kalshi has been tracking Golden State's position in the LeBron James next team odds throughout free agency as Cleveland's lead has grown.
Cleveland
Cleveland remains the market favorite, and the case for a homecoming goes beyond nostalgia. ESPN's Bobby Marks and Brian Windhorst wrote that Cleveland offers an attractive roster that includes Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, James Harden, and Sam Merrill.
"The Cavs are expensive and ready to win," Windhorst wrote. "They are expected to be a serious Finals contender or they face a significant roster overhaul. James would walk into that pressure, but with nothing to prove personally."
With Charania indicating James now has all the information he needs to decide, a resolution may be close, but Kalshi traders appear to think Golden State still has a real shot regardless of where the reporting points.
Earlier this month, Miami's odds spiked on the LeBron James next team market before pulling back as Cleveland reasserted its lead.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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