LeBron James has yet to announce where he'll play next season, and Kalshi traders expect the wait to continue.
The platform’s announcement-timing market currently implies a 22% chance James announces his decision this week, a 77% chance by next week and a 90% chance before Aug. 2.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NBA.
Where will James play next?
Meanwhile, the market for James' next team has narrowed. Traders still favor Cleveland at 35%, but Golden State has surged to 32%. Miami is also at 19%, while Philadelphia is priced at 13%.
What’s LeBron waiting for?
James recently said that he’s not yet ready to make a decision.
ESPN reports that James appeared on the "Mind the Game" podcast at Fanatics Fest, his first public comments on free agency since leaving the Los Angeles Lakers. Co-host Tyrese Haliburton tried to get James to reveal where he might be headed, but he wouldn't budge.
“We literally talked about this in the back, Rese,” James said to Haliburton.
James also hinted that a decision may not be far off. Speaking at the CNBC x Boardroom Game Plan event, James told the audience, "I won't hold you guys up too much longer."
Where is LeBron headed?
Recent reports indicated that James may have narrowed the decision down to three teams.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on Tuesday that James is focused on Cleveland, Miami, and the Philadelphia 76ers.
Golden State remains part of the conversation, though recent reports suggest other teams may have the edge. ClutchPoints’ Brett Siegel also previously reported that Draymond Green has been doing what he can to bring James to the Warriors.
Green’s efforts may be for nothing. USA Today’s Andrés Soto reported that Charania said on The Pat McAfee Show that the Warriors are losing the battle for LeBron to the Cavs, the Heat, and the 76ers.
“If you add LeBron James to the Cavaliers, that’s a hole at the three position that they need,” Charania said. “You add him to the Sixers, he slides right into the starting lineup. That’s a contender. Cavs, contender. Heat, complete contender the moment he gets there.
“The Warriors would need a little bit of work still,” Charania added.
Traders seem to think despite all the news that Golden State still has a chance to add James to their roster for what could be the final season of his career. While Cleveland remains the market favorite, traders also appear to believe James will take additional time before making his final decision.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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