Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has taken the lead over Mayor Karen Bass on Kalshi's L.A. mayoral market. The price shift comes after a new poll was released showing Raman ahead among likely voters by 11 points.
Raman now leads Kalshi's L.A. mayoral market, with her chances of winning priced at 58%, followed by Bass at 42%.
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In a related market, Kalshi's traders now forecast Raman to win the L.A. mayoral election by a margin of 10.3%.
What do the polls say?
The Los Angeles Times reported that a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times shows Raman leading Bass 39%-28% among likely voters, with 33% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
The result marks Raman's strongest showing yet in Berkeley IGS polling. Shortly before the June primary, the same pollster had Raman leading Bass by four points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
The poll also found Bass underwater on favorability, with 63% viewing her unfavorably and 28% favorably. Another 9% had no opinion. Raman was viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 39%, while 21% had no opinion.
The large number of undecided voters appears to be driven in part by Angelenos who supported Spencer Pratt in the June primary. Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley poll, told The Times that Pratt finished third in the June primary with about 26% of the vote, behind Bass at roughly 34% and Raman at 29%.
“It’s extraordinarily unusual to see this many undecided voters at this point in the race,” DiCamillo said.
Raman’s endorsements
USA Today reported that Raman has also received several endorsements from labor and political organizations ahead of the runoff.
Earlier this month, she picked up the endorsement of the Democratic Socialists of America-Los Angeles chapter, which “signaled that enough members support Raman’s mayoral run and unlocked more assistance for her campaign.”
Raman also picked up the endorsement of the Unite Here Local 11 union that represents hotel, airport and sports arena workers and the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters.
“These three are all very politically astute organizations with a lot of resources,” said Fernando Guerra, a professor and the director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. “How did they come to that decision? That should be worrisome to the Bass campaign.”
These key endorsements also landed before Labor Day, giving Raman “enough time to mobilize and organize and be effective,” Guerra said.
TV advertising
The Los Angeles Times also reported that both candidates have begun running new ads on television, streaming platforms and social media. Raman recently caught a lot of attention with a new ad voiced by actor Bob Odenkirk designed to look like a “For Your Consideration” campaign for the Emmys.
Bass also released a 30-second digital ad featuring footage from July 2025, when she confronted federal immigration agents at MacArthur Park.
“The video features images of gun-toting federal agents in military uniforms and Bass hopping out of a car in an aquamarine pantsuit to face them,” The Times reported.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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