Eleven days before Election Day, the Trump administration is pulling a batch of Canadian goods out of its 50% tariffs, and it was Sen. Susan Collins, not the White House, who announced it. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the rollback is meant to help Collins, who is fighting for a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson in one of the closest Senate races in the country.
It is exactly the kind of win Jackson has spent the fall ridiculing. When Collins touted her road-salt exemption at their second debate this month, Jackson shot back that Mainers "can't eat road salt." Friday's list is aimed at the state's food growers instead, and Collins is betting that relief for blueberry and potato farms lands differently.
Troy Jackson is at 65% to win in Kalshi's Maine Senate market as of Friday afternoon, with Collins at 35%. That is a point below the 66% Jackson hit on Thursday, when Joe Manchin hit the trail for Collins.
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What did Trump lift?
Collins' office said a forthcoming order will exempt nine categories of Canadian products that Maine farmers rely on, aimed at the state's blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed producers. The list her office released includes:
Cardboard boxes, plastic boxes and crates, and plastic packing bags
Cooling equipment
Machinery for cleaning, sorting and grading crops, and packaging machinery
Non-adhesive plates, foil and strip
Seaweed and algae products
Collins said she won the exemptions after repeated conversations with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Her statement came minutes after the Wall Street Journal reported the rollback, which Reuters described as a bid to help Collins and other Republicans in northern border states such as Michigan.
The details are not final. A White House official told the Journal that any tariff announcement would come from the administration and called early reports speculation, and as of mid-afternoon Friday no proclamation had been issued. The Journal also reported a catch: the cuts could be balanced out by raising levies on other Canadian goods. Collins' office has not put a dollar value on the products covered.
The relief is narrow. Trump imposed the 50% duties in July under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a Depression-era provision no president had used before, covering roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods from wine and dairy to plywood and hockey gear. They took effect Aug. 19. Road salt and cement were dropped from the list in September after Collins lobbied for them, and a New Jersey importer sued this week to challenge the Section 338 authority.
For Maine, the stakes are outsized: two-way trade with Canada ran about $6 billion a year before the tariffs, and the state imports roughly $2 billion in non-petroleum Canadian goods annually.
Why tariffs matter in this race
Both candidates oppose the Canada tariffs, so the fight is over who can actually do something about them. A CNN poll from early September found seven in 10 likely Maine voters say the duties on Canadian goods hurt the state; only 12% called them a good thing.
Collins' case is clout. As chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, she argues that seniority and relationships get results, and her campaign says that while both candidates would have voted against the tariffs, only she secured exemptions. Voters seem to agree on that narrow point: the Washington Post-Schar School poll gave her a 24-point edge over Jackson on bringing federal dollars to Maine.
Jackson's case is that there should never have been a list to carve things out of. He has mocked Collins' exemptions since September, when road salt and cement came off the tariff list after she lobbied for them. His road-salt retort at the second debate took off on social media because it compressed his argument into one line: carve-outs for municipal supplies do little for families paying more at the grocery store.
Friday's exemptions test that line. They target the inputs of Maine's food economy, from blueberry sorting machines to potato packaging, rather than winter road maintenance. But Jackson's broader point still stands: the 50% duties remain on most of the roughly $20 billion in covered goods, and the administration may raise tariffs elsewhere to offset the cuts.
Jackson has also argued Collins failed to use her power to stop Trump, though PolitiFact found one of his attacks left out four 2025 votes in which Collins joined Democrats against Trump's tariffs. The same Post poll found 58% of respondents think Collins has been too supportive of Trump.
Friday's announcement fits a pattern. In the final weeks, Collins' office has also claimed credit for the early release of $38 million in heating assistance and an emergency heating-oil release as fuel prices spike.
What do the polls say
The newest survey, a Fox News poll taken after the final debate, has the race tied at 49% apiece. In it, 62% of Maine voters disapprove of Trump and 53% worry Collins votes with him too much, while 46% say Jackson is too liberal.
Collins' firewall is older voters. AARP found voters 50 and older favor her 53% to 44%, while Jackson leads by 25 points among voters under 50.
The final stretch
Manchin for Collins. Former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin endorsed Collins and campaigned with her in Lewiston this week (Kalshi News coverage).
A testy last debate. At their fourth and final debate in Bangor on Oct. 15, Jackson told Collins "Oh, shut up" after a protester interrupted; he later said he didn't regret it, and Collins called the reply telling.
Outside money turns negative. A Republican PAC began airing an ad attacking Jackson this week; Collins' own campaign called for it to be taken down.
An accidental nominee. Jackson, a former logger and state Senate president, became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner withdrew in July.
Early vote. Absentee and early voting are running high in Maine, and outside analyses suggest the early vote leans Jackson, which would put more pressure on Collins' Election Day turnout.
The takeaway
Friday's tariff news hands Collins the closing argument she has built all fall: that her seniority and access deliver for Maine when Washington won't. Jackson's road-salt line is the rebuttal in miniature, and the fine print may keep it alive. The 50% duties still cover most of the roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods, and the administration may raise levies elsewhere to offset the cuts.
Traders have not bought a Collins comeback yet. Jackson sat at 62% in late September, slipped to 57% by Oct. 16, climbed to 66% on Thursday and held at 65% Friday afternoon as the tariff news broke. Kalshi's margin market points to a Democratic win of about 1.7 points, in line with the polling averages. With early voting already running high, Collins has 11 days to turn relief for farm country into votes. Election Day is Nov. 3.
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