The next President of America, Venezuela, Iran... (and 6+ more)

Good afternoon, traders.

With every story seeming to be about politics these days, when picking the newsletter topic each week, we’ve been trying to find a topic that doesn’t wade into political waters. Today, that will change (kinda). We’re going to discuss someone who, due to a string of global affairs and the accompanying memes, has come into the spotlight.

That person is Marco Rubio.

Don’t worry, we aren’t going to bore you with a bunch of political jargon that makes you want to throw away all your technology and live in a hut in the woods forever. Instead, we’re going to be looking at Marco Rubio from the standpoint of his internet virality, and his rising odds on some of our prediction markets.

But before we get into any of that, let’s take a look at what’s happening in the world and markets.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

NASA announces a $20 billion plan to build a permanent base on the moon. Approximately half of that budget is for when something eventually goes wrong and they have to rescue Matt Damon from space.

Traders predict a 56% chance that Members of Congress are banned from trading stocks by 2029. “We’re just going to call it quits, nobody is going to replicate the run Pelosi had, she was just the G.O.A.T.,” said one interviewed member of Congress.

OpenAI raises another $10 billion to bring the total funding round to $120 billion and the company valuation to $730 billion. “We don’t know if they’ll be able to provide $730 billion in value, but the fact that I don’t have to write my own emails anymore makes the investment worth it to me,” said one VC analyst.

Up until a few months ago, Marco Rubio was primarily known for being the subject of memes after America infiltrated Venezuela.

While those memes are hilarious and gained him a lot of attention, he’s now starting to be talked about as a plausible candidate for presidencies (yes, with an S, we’ll get to that later). Though he has had a long political career, most people only know of him due to:

But recently, there’s been a rise in traders who think Rubio will win the Republican nomination, and possibly even the presidential election in 2028.

With all of this said, it probably makes sense to take a look at who Marco Rubio is, what he currently spends his time doing, and why there are so many memes about him now.

Rubio is currently the U.S. Secretary of State, the National Security Advisor, and Administrator of USAID. We won’t bore you with how he came to take on these roles. What matters is that Marco Rubio and Trump put aside their differences and came together to help the American people after calling each other “con artists” and “lightweights” during the 2016 election campaign.

Regardless of whether you remember that presidential race, if you’ve spent any time on Twitter/X in the past couple of months, you’ve seen Marco Rubio in a variety of attire following major world events.

Simultaneously serving as the new Ayatollah of Iran, President of Venezuela, Governor of Minnesota, PM of Canada and Greenland when they inevitably become the 51st and 52nd states, and new Bachelorette, Rubio has his work cut out for him.

In a more serious tone, Rubio has also gone viral because he is the main public voice within the administration attempting to explain what is happening. When Rubio speaks, situation monitors who pay their rent with arbitrage trades listen.

Importantly, his job isn’t just explaining to the American public what is happening, but also to world leaders. On Friday, he’s jetting off to France to meet with and convince G7 allies to support American activities in the Middle East. 

While Americans are paying attention to the memes, they’re also watching to see how he handles all of this. Outside of talking with EU leaders, and just to contextualize how much he is intertwined in everything, he currently has the same odds of becoming Venezuelan leader as the President of the National Assembly of Venezuela and the former Minister of Defence. 

If Rubio does a good job negotiating peace talks, and convinces G7 allies to act in a favorable way that lowers gas prices, boosts the economy, and decreases the odds of further conflict escalation, his odds of being nominated as the GOP presidential candidate for 2028, as well as his odds of being the 2028 presidential election winner, may continue to rise.

Fortunately for Rubio, peace talks tend to be very straightforward and resolve quickly (kidding).

But a very important question being overlooked is whether or not people will actually care?

The answer is very simple: Maybe if gas prices go down.

But even if it costs less to fill up your car, we’re forgetting that half of America has an attention span of less than 5 seconds. If Rubio does work everything out, people might not care nor remember when it’s time to vote 2.5 years from now.

Now, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Achievement of all of these things is contingent upon rules, laws, and norms. Everyone should hope that Rubio succeeds in peace talks, but because we live in a world where a rogue tweet from a world leader can send the Dow nosediving 2% intraday, when it comes to whether his odds will last or not your guess is as good as ours.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}