The Virginia Supreme Court struck down a key redistricting map that reduces Democrats' chance of gaining seats and could affect their chances of retaking the U.S. House.
The U.S. House midterms market shifted following the decision. The Democratic Party's chance of winning the House dropped to 74% from a recent high of 86%, while the Republican Party's rose from 14% to 26%.
The market tracking how many seats Republicans will hold after the midterms also spiked. The forecast rose to 210.6, from a low of 199 on April 10.
The Virginia Supreme Court
After Texas redrew its lines to create more Republican-leaning congressional districts, states on both sides of the aisle followed suit in the hopes of gaining more House seats in the midterms. Virginia voters approved a new Democratic-favored map in April that could give Democrats as many as four additional seats ahead of the November midterms.
CNBC reported that the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the redistricting referendum. Justice D. Arthur Kelsey wrote that the referendum opened the door to gerrymandering in an "unprecedented manner" and that it "irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote."
Republicans including President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson celebrated the decision. Johnson wrote on X that the ruling was "a victory for democracy and ensures Virginians have fair representation in Congress."
Other states’ redrawn maps
The National Conference of State Legislatures reports that eight states have redrawn their boundaries ahead of the 2026 midterms: California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah.
Alabama convened a special session on May 4 to consider a new referendum for its district maps. South Carolina introduced a proposal to redraw several congressional districts.
Indiana, Maryland, New York, and Washington each considered redistricting measures, but those efforts were either voted down or failed to clear their legislatures before the deadline.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
