Michigan’s Senate race is one of the most closely watched contest of the 2026 cycle for Democrats, and with early voting already underway, the window is closing fast. Currently, Abdul El-Sayed holds a 67% chance of winning on Kalshi, with Republican Mike Rogers at 34%.
The market briefly dipped from the mid-70s for El-Sayed immediately after the Oct. 8 debate, but has stabilized in the high 60s since, suggesting traders remain confident in his lead despite a tighter-than-expected showing on the debate stage.
What do the polls say?
Recent surveys continue to show a narrow lead for El-Sayed, consistent with a competitive race.
A poll released on Friday from Wedgewood Polls (Oct. 8–9, 607 likely voters) had El-Sayed at 53% and Rogers at 47% (+6). A Sunday InsiderAdvantage poll (Oct. 9–10, 1,200 likely voters) showed a tighter result: El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 46% (+2).
The post-debate period has featured continued circulation of debate clips and personal exchanges online and on the campaign trail. El-Sayed, a University of Michigan alum, joked at a campaign event about whether Michigan would “win a game without cheating.”
Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy responded on X by posting the clip and writing that El-Sayed "really is a terrorist." Rogers quote tweeted Portnoy and wrote that he "is exactly right." El-Sayed later replied with a clip of Portnoy running and a jab referencing "athletic terrorism" and telling him "less pizza, more gym, habibi."
The exchange has drawn coverage from Detroit News and others, with Rogers' campaign later framing the original comment as sports related trash talk rather than a literal accusation.
Presidential attention
The jabs were not just coming from Dave Portnoy, however.
President Trump continued attacking El-Sayed over the weekend. At a Saturday rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, he repeatedly called the Democrat “Mohammed,” labeled him a “radical jihadist,” and said “I’m the president. I can call him whatever the hell I want.” Trump has also posted on Truth Social in recent days praising Rogers' debate performance and calling El-Sayed a “Jihadist lunatic.”
What will make the difference?
The key factor in this race going toward the tape might be the outside money coming in to support both candidates. Reported spending has already topped $200 million and is on track to approach $300 million, the most expensive in Michigan history. Republican aligned outside groups have outspent El-Sayed's allies roughly 2 to 1 since the primary.
At the Oct. 8 debate Mike Rogers said he would welcome help from anyone, including groups tied to AIPAC. The next day AIPAC's super PAC, United Democracy Project, disclosed roughly $95,000 in mailers opposing El-Sayed and targeting about 130,000 Jewish voters. That same day Rogers held an event in Highland Township with Sen. John Kennedy and told the crowd that if he wins over 5 percent of the people who voted for Haley Stevens in the primary, El-Sayed can't win the election, according to The Detroit News. The 5 percent would amount to about 36,500 votes. In 2024 Rogers lost to Elissa Slotkin by roughly 19,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast.
Michigan has long been an enigma for Democrats. Donald Trump carried the state in both 2016 and 2024, yet on the same 2024 ballot, voters also elected Democrat Elissa Slotkin to the Senate by a thin margin of roughly 19,000 votes. If Democrats hope to take the Senate majority in 2026, the path almost certainly runs through Michigan and its voters and keeping the seat blue.
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