Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's odds of winning fell six percentage points on Kalshi's Michigan Senate market following his first debate with Republican Mike Rogers.
El-Sayed's price fell from 73% to 67%, while Rogers' rose from 27% to 33%.
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Michigan Senate debate
El-Sayed and Rogers exchanged sharp personal attacks during their first debate at WOOD-TV's studios in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
NBC News reported that the debate featured discussions about the War in Iran, gas prices and tariffs before the proceedings “veered into mean-spirited sniping.”
El-Sayed “sought to portray his Republican rival…as a weak-willed loyalist to President Donald Trump” while Rogers “tried to frame El-Sayed as a ‘con man’ who is making promises he cannot pay for without raising taxes or other costs.”
The exchanges became so contentious that moderator Rick Albin asked the candidates to rein in their attacks.
The New York Times reported that the debate became more personal during an exchange about police use of Flock surveillance cameras. El-Sayed says their use should be regulated by the federal government. Rogers questioned El-Sayed's stance on the issue.
“Why would that bother you?” Rogers said. “Well, if you have someone in your family that might be on the, on the watch list…”
“Go ahead and say it,” El-Sayed responded. “You’ve been tiptoeing around it the whole time.”
The New York Times also reported that Rogers accused El-Sayed of accepting support from individuals he alleged had connections to extremist organizations, saying that he was “bought off by Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, those people who are supporting you, pour that money into your campaign.”
Later in the debate, Rogers directed his attacks at El-Sayed’s mother, insinuating that she has “ties to groups working in the Middle East.”
“You going after my mom?” El-Sayed asked.
The Times reported that there was no evidence supporting Rogers' allegations that El-Sayed was backed by terrorist organizations.
El-Sayed responded by accusing Rogers of attempting to distract voters from his own record saying, “He wants this to be about anything but his own record.”
El-Sayed also questioned his ties to President Donald Trump and his administration. Republican candidates have been distancing themselves from the president as his poll numbers continue to drop, even among his own supporters. He accused Rogers of being "a guy who wants to be a sock puppet for the Trump administration" over issues like the war in Iran that has led to high gas prices across the country.
Which party will win the Senate?
Kalshi's Senate control market also shifted toward Republicans, with the Democratic Party's price falling two percentage points from 63% to 61%. The Republican Party's price rose from 36% to 38%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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