Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's chances of winning Michigan's Senate race fell eight points in a day to 68% on Sunday . Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), who narrowly lost the August primary to him, had just endorsed Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed was around 76% at noon ET shortly before Stevens posted her endorsement.
Rogers rose to 32% on Kalshi's Michigan Senate winner market as of 1:04 p.m. ET, from 23% on Saturday afternoon. Trading volume on the market has passed $21.6 million.
(Note: This market is volatile, and El-Sayed rose to 70% just before publishing).
The endorsement
Stevens went to a service with Rogers around 11:20 a.m. at Perfecting Church on Detroit's east side. About an hour later she posted her endorsement on social media, per The Detroit News. Before going inside, Stevens said she supports investing in Black-owned businesses, 'and that's the policy Mike's going to take on.'
In her endorsement video, Stevens said: 'Abdul said that I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away. And he's right. … I don't belong in Abdul's campaign.'
Rogers stood beside her in front of reporters and said he was 'honored' to have her support. 'This is courage in politics in America today,' he said.
Democrats react
Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel said the party 'stands united and fully behind Abdul El-Sayed.' He said Stevens 'has abandoned everything she claims to care about.' Stevens' chief of staff and communications director quit after the endorsement, two sources told CNN.
Stevens had been scheduled to appear Sunday with El-Sayed and Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), who organized that event, told the AP she pulled it because it had 'become way too distracting.' El-Sayed went ahead with Clyburn at a separate Detroit church.
The split had been building all week. Stevens' fiancé, Jason Turkish, said he would vote for Rogers because of El-Sayed's rhetoric on Israel. Stevens then demanded that El-Sayed condemn a Rebellion PAC ad she called antisemitic. On Friday, El-Sayed said she 'seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago.' He rejected the ad's contents on Saturday, per Axios.
Why it matters
El-Sayed won the Aug. 4 primary 48.5% to 47.5%. Stevens carried Wayne and Oakland counties, where Democrats are counting on Black and Jewish voters to turn out Tuesday. Early voting ends Sunday, and more than 2 million early ballots had been cast as of Saturday, according to NBC News data in Kalshi's Saturday report.
Kalshi traders now forecast El-Sayed winning by 2.5 percentage points, down from 2.8 points on Saturday. The polling average on Kalshi's market page has El-Sayed at 49.2% and Rogers at 44.9%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders currently price:
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