Odds of Democrat Abdul El-Sayed winning the Michigan Senate race gained two percentage points in the last 24 hours despite the nominee’s public feud with Representative Haley Stevens, signaling a lack of unity among the state’s Democratic coalition.
Prediction market-implied odds of El-Sayed securing the Senate representing Michigan stand at 77%, while Republican Mike Rogers has a 23% chance of victory as of Saturday afternoon, according to Kalshi's event contract on the Michigan Senate winner.
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Tensions escalate
The better odds come as El-Sayed's campaign asked Stevens, who lost in the August primary, not to attend further campaign events in the final stretch of the closely watched race, Politico reported on Friday evening, citing two people familiar with the decision.
The request comes after Stevens said she would join El-Sayed at a church in Detroit on Sunday, which would have been their first joint public appearance in months.
Stevens expected the Michigan Senate frontrunner to formally condemn a Rebellion PAC advertisement that supported him. “That ad tells Michigan families they cannot afford groceries because their money has to be set aside ‘for killing Palestinians,’” and it blames our close ally Israel for everything Michiganders cannot afford,” Stevens said yesterday morning in a statement on X.
However, El-Sayed that evening said, "While Congresswoman Stevens seems intent on litigating a primary that ended three months ago, let's all focus on the task at hand: that's beating Mike Rogers, holding Trump accountable, and getting money out of politics, putting money in pockets, and passing Medicare for All."
Meanwhile, the Republican nominee used the infighting and divisions in the Democratic Party as an opportunity to criticize El-Sayed. “Representative Stevens’ statement expressed a hope that Abdul El-Sayed ‘had heard the deep concerns of the Jewish Community,’” Rogers said on social media. “It is as shameful as it is disappointing that his response to her clearly shows that he does not care about those concerns.”
Stevens had previously pledged to vote for El-Sayed, though her fiancé endorsed Rogers and even campaigned with the Republican candidate earlier this week, according to The Times.
Early voting nears conclusion
The tensions in the Democratic Party between El-Sayed and Stevens emerged as statewide early voting period in Michigan ends on Sunday. Election Day is slated for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
More than 2 million registered voters have cast an early ballot, of which Democrats were responsible for 51%, while Republicans made up 39% of the total, according to NBC News citing data provided by TargetSmart.
Michigan’s figure for early voting, which includes absentee mail-in and early in-person ballots, is a roughly 54% increase from 1.3 million in 2022. “Still, early in-person voting is new to the state, and there is not enough historical data to accurately predict the partisan breakdowns,” The New York Times reported.
Kalshi traders forecast El-Sayed's margin of victory to be 2.8 percentage points.
The takeaway:
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