I legitimately cannot believe the balance of college football scheduling in 2026. It’s like the folks who made it could see the future.
I’ve twice written about six ranked matchups in one Saturday this season, which was the record. How about seven, according to the College Football Playoff rankings?
It starts in the morning. A Big 12 eliminator between #7 BYU and #3 Utah marks the first top-10 matchup in “Holy War” history. #9 Alabama and #15 LSU got a surprising amount of life from the CFP committee on Tuesday, and we’ll see which one can keep it. Plus, #1 Miami (FL) puts the top spot in the country on the line as they visit #4 Notre Dame while missing one of the sport’s top stars.
Kalshi's college football traders have takes on these seven games, and I’ll preview ‘em all.
For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
#7 BYU at #3 Utah
This isn’t your slightly older brother’s Utah team.
Once a team built on defense and ball control under Kyle Whittingham, Utah’s program-best season features a defense that ranks just 51st in yards allowed per play (5.3 YPP). Instead, it’s been a dynamic rushing duo of QB Devon Dampier and RB Wayshawn Parker, who have the Utes positioned 14th in the country in rushing per game (207.3 yards).
BYU’s top-25 run defense (3.5 YPC allowed) is a real factor in keeping this one competitive. Urgency has to be high for the Cougars, whose slip in Orlando two weeks ago has basically removed any margin for error on a second loss if you factor in the committee’s preference for the SEC on Tuesday.
Quietly, Brigham Young’s passing offense has made strides. They’re 30th in EPA per pass, according to GameOnPaper. Houston’s Connor Weigman lit up Utah for 8.1 yards per attempt two weeks ago, so Bear Bachmeier’s right arm is likely the x-factor in keeping this one close.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: BYU 24, Utah 23
#10 Texas at #19 Missouri
Health can change football seasons, and it’s not going #10 Texas’s way at the moment.
Amidst a busy injury report, RB Hollywood Smothers and OT Trevor Goosby are done for the year. WRs Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, as well as a projected top pick at EDGE, Collin Simmons, are all questionable. That’s a whole lot of talent potentially sitting against a #19 Missouri squad with an NFL-caliber quarterback (who just re-signed for 2027).
Mizzou is a perfect 4-0 at home this year compared to 2-2 on the road, so this battle being in Columbia is a massive deal. QB Austin Simmons and the offense managed just 3 points in Oxford against a pedestrian #12 Ole Miss defense, which Texas dismantled.
Arch Manning (56.0 QBR) is still struggling mightily, but the Longhorns lead the nation in YPP allowed (3.8). That defense will travel, but can the Longhorns put up enough points to make it count?
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Missouri 22, Texas 20
#9 Alabama at #15 LSU
Kalshi’s rankings are from the AP Top 25, but the talk of the week was Alabama’s #5 ranking in the inaugural College Football Playoff standings, seemingly giving the Tide an inside track to the playoff despite a stumble in Knoxville two weeks ago.
They’ve got a very difficult hurdle in front of them on Saturday afternoon, though. In Death Valley, LSU might be peaking at the right time. Lane Kiffin’s offense has put up 31-plus points in five straight games, and the Tigers trail only Texas in YPP allowed (4.0 YPP).
Alabama QB Keelon Russell, a 19-year-old freshman, has badly struggled in his last two ranked games, completing just 59.3% of his throws. Here’s another top-10 (at minimum) defense in his way on the road.
I talked about LSU’s climb toward the CFP rankings after their stumble against Kentucky, and everything has gone according to plan thus far. This seems like another spot where Kalshi’s traders have confidence.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: LSU 31, Alabama 21
Oregon at #11 Ohio State
Whether or not we’ve truly broken the record for ranked games depends on your source. AP voters left Oregon out of the mix, but that won’t be the case if they find their way past #11 Ohio State in Columbus.
This was a projected battle for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft between Dante Moore and Julian Sayin, but both quarterbacks have suffered major injuries. Oregon’s Dylan Raiola finally got on track in Moore’s stead with 336 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks in a home win over Northwestern, but Ohio State’s Luke Fahey did anything but, completing just 55.3% of his passes in his first career start against a porous USC defense.
Can Fahey muster a better effort against an Oregon D that is 45th in YPP allowed (5.2)? Well, tossing it to the Heisman Trophy favorite, Jeremiah Smith, more than just 12 targets would be a good start.
This would be an unbelievable redemption story for a much-maligned Raiola to go into Columbus and win. It’s the type of game that could resurrect his NFL stock. Ohio State is just 113th in defensive sack rate (4.2%) across FBS, so he might have time to cook up a valiant effort.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Ohio State 24, Oregon 20
#8 Kentucky at #16 Tennessee
Will Stein and the #8 Kentucky Wildcats are one of the top stories in college football, but Kalshi traders are sort of calling them a fraud in this spot.
After all, Kentucky caught a massive scheduling break by SEC standards so far. They’ve only played two ranked teams, getting whacked 45-17 by Alabama before narrowly escaping LSU, 35-34, on the basis of college football’s zany overtime rules. They’re just 16th in adjusted EPA per play compared to a top-10 ranking.
Amazingly, Tennessee (14th) is above them despite being carried by its defense. They’ve had a 200-yard passer just twice all season! NFL-bound defensive linemen Xavier Gilliam and Tyree Weathersby have combined for 13 sacks to create short fields.
Kentucky isn’t a truly elite run defense, ceding 3.9 YPC (37th in FBS). That’s Tennessee’s one saving grace to, once again, hide George MacIntyre (26.7 QBR) and sneak away with an ugly win.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Tennessee 19, Kentucky 13
#1 Miami (FL) at #4 Notre Dame
You can see in the lookahead market on Kalshi that traders never wavered on favoring the Irish here. That’s quite the statement when, three weeks ago, Notre Dame got pushed around by a Big 12 school, and Miami was in the midst of lighting up the scoreboard with 40-plus points in four straight games.
Life comes at you fast, though. In a narrow escape against North Carolina, Miami lost star receiver Malachi Toney for the season. Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw are credentialed veterans in the college ranks, but there’s no replacing the dynamic element of Toney, a human joystick.
Therefore, we’ll find out what Darian Mensah, the FBS leader in QBR (90.4), is truly made of on Saturday. Mensah has 25 touchdowns to just 1 interception, and he’s enjoyed having RB Mark Fletcher Jr., whom I’ve dubbed “Baby Derrick Henry” for his large frame, waltz in a team-high 9 touchdowns in just 7 games.
The Hurricanes are 83rd in passing YPA allowed (7.6), and if there is a strength of this Notre Dame team, it’s NFL-bound passer CJ Carr and a deep group of weapons. Without Toney and with the Irish desperate to solidify a playoff spot, Miami is in a tough spot.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Notre Dame 34, Miami 27
#2 Georgia at #12 Ole Miss
A game like this can go under the radar, but we’ll close the night in Oxford. This is a must-win game for #12 Ole Miss, which doesn’t have a very strong CFP argument with three losses before Thanksgiving.
It’s probably fair. Ole Miss’ defense ranks 60th in YPP allowed and 49th in adjusted EPA per play, which accounts for a difficult schedule. You’d have thought that Pete Golding, the team’s 2025 defensive coordinator who replaced Kiffin, would have that side a bit more buttoned up, but it’s been Trinidad Chambliss putting on the cape.
Chambliss couldn’t do it against Texas, and here’s another difficult unit to face: #2 Georgia. Georgia is 9th in YPP allowed and 14th in sack rate, albeit facing just two ranked squads. They drop to 33rd in adjusted EPA per play.
Georgia’s upset loss to Auburn came via 3 turnovers, and Ole Miss is averaging 1.5 per game. Gunnar Stockton completed just 58.1% of his passes when he met Golding’s defense in the January 2026 Sugar Bowl. Don’t sleep on this matchup amidst all the others; Mississippi might have a few tricks up their sleeve.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Ole Miss 30, Georgia 28
Follow Austin Swaim on X: @ASwaim3
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Bobak Ha'Eri
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA.
