The 2025-26 pro-football season has produced one of the most unpredictable campaigns in recent memory. Ahead of the divisional round, it is still a wide-open competitive field.
However, with Pittsburgh recently eliminated from the postseason, Mike Tomlin has announced that he is stepping down as the team’s head coach after 19 years.
The news comes one week after Baltimore dismissed John Harbaugh from his head-coaching post after 18 seasons. Tomlin and Harbaugh were the league’s longest-tenured coaches heading into 2025.
“To me, that’s an absolute joke,” stated four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers when asked if Coach Tomlin should be on the hot seat following Monday’s playoff defeat at home. “I’ve answered that a number of times. I’ve talked extensively about how I feel about [Tomlin], and I just did in that f*cking answer,” Rodgers concluded.
Naturally, Tomlin was also presented with that same question in his own post-game presser. “I’m not even in that mindset as I sit here tonight,” Tomlin replied after last night’s 30–6 loss to Houston, which extended the franchise’s current seven-game postseason losing streak. According to Kalshi’s traders, Tomlin had a 57% probability on Tuesday morning of being out in Pittsburgh before next season.
Where will Tomlin land?
While Tomlin may be out of a job, there are presently eight head coaching vacancies around the league.
Tomlin’s only head coaching experience comes from his time in “Steel City,” but throughout that span, he guided the Black & Yellow to one world championship, two conference titles and eight division crowns; he also posted a 193-114-2 (.628) regular-season record, while never finishing a year with more losses than wins.
Clearly, Tomlin will be an attractive candidate to many franchises. Let’s take a look at what Kalshi traders are forecasting as Tomlin’s most likely options.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Miami relieved Mike McDaniel of his head-coaching role last week despite ownership recently expressing support for him. Does that mean Tomlin would be a cohesive fit in South Beach?
Currently, Tomlin has a 16% chance to take over Miami’s program. He is among the market leaders (Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is trading at 26¢ here, which is down from 30¢ prior to Tomlin’s announcement), but not the outright favorite.
Over the past two decades, Miami has cycled through 13 different head coaches. In that same span, Miami registered nine playoff berths. As noted, Tomlin brings incredible consistency and continuity. His 19 years in Western Pennsylvania illustrates that, since Pittsburgh has employed only three different head coaches dating back to 1969.
Ironically, Tomlin and Miami have displayed mutual interest before. Prior to taking the Pittsburgh job, Tomlin interviewed for Miami’s open head coach spot in 2007. The team elected to sign Cam Cameron, who was gone after just one campaign. Perhaps that means there is some unfinished business between Tomlin and the team.
New York was one of the first teams to fire its head coach in 2025, axing Brian Daboll in early November. General manager Joe Schoen is now tasked with finding Daboll’s full-time successor, and Schoen will likely give Tomlin a call.
Big Blue would like its next head coach to emphasize the relationship with quarterback Jaxson Dart. After a solid rookie showing, supporters of the organization are excited to see how Dart progresses. In his early days, Tomlin showed that he can work well with a young, dynamic signal caller. Future Hall-of-Famer Ben Roethlisberger did not earn a Pro Bowl nod until Tomlin arrived in Pittsburgh.
Kalshi’s traders are predicting John Harbaugh (54¢) to be New York’s next head coach. Tomlin shows a 16% chance here, which has doubled since Tuesday morning.
The field
Aside from Miami and New York, there are still six other franchises undergoing a coaching search: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Tennessee. However, Tomlin is not currently within the top-five candidates (per Kalshi) for any of those teams.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any college, conference, athletic organization, league, broadcaster, or event referenced. References to teams, schools, conferences, leagues, events, or broadcasts are for informational purposes only. All trademarks, logos, and names are the property of their respective owners.