After 18 years as head coach of Baltimore, John Harbaugh was informed on Tuesday that the franchise would be moving in a different direction. Harbaugh — who brought six division titles and one world championship to the city — is now taking calls for his next role.
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Coaches with Harbaugh’s experience don’t hit the market too often. As such, he is a strong contender for numerous open positions featured in Kalshi’s “Next head coach?” markets.
Ahead of the opening round of the playoffs, Harbaugh is trading at 37¢ to be the next head coach for New York. Of course, Big Blue fired Brian Daboll from that position last November, and is now in need of a fresh start.
Behind New York, traders also think Harbaugh has a significant chance to become the next head coach of Atlanta (20%) and Cleveland (16%). From there, Las Vegas (13%) could also be a potential fit, as his brother — Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh — worked for the Silver & Black from 2002-03.
Here’s a closer look at Harbaugh’s top options.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
As mentioned, New York’s National franchise is reflecting a 57% likelihood to hire Harbaugh for the 2026-27 campaign. No one else in the market has a probability higher than 20%, as Kevin Stefanski — who was recently fired in Cleveland — is listed second here. Interestingly, New York also confirmed an interview with Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph for its opening. However, Kalshi’s traders have Joseph priced at just two cents.
Harbaugh’s firing in Baltimore apparently took the G-Men by surprise, as they were not prepared for him to enter the talent pool. There are no direct ties with Harbaugh and this current regime in the Big Apple, but he is the most accomplished coach (180-113 record) that is available and of suitable age.
New York and Harbaugh could be a mutually beneficial fit for several reasons. This job — more so than most others around the league — requires a well-respected presence, both in the locker room and in the media.
Subsequently, New York has a young quarterback with a lot of potential in Jaxson Dart. When you survey which organizations currently have head coaching vacancies, Big Blue has that advantage to attract Harbaugh.
Atlanta initiated the first of this week’s firings after parting ways with Raheem Morris on Sunday evening. Incidentally, Kalshi’s traders now price Harbaugh at 20¢ to be named Atlanta’s next head coach, which is third highest.
Ahead of Harbaugh, Stefanski and Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak each carry a 25% chance to take the job in Georgia’s capital city. Of course, Kubiak still has duties to tend to fulfill, as Seattle is in the midst of a title run.
Harbaugh could be keen on Atlanta for several reasons. This team is flush with young talent, especially at the offensive skill spots. It remains to be seen where tight end Kyle Pitts will sign, but having athletes like tailback Bijan Robinson and receiver Drake London can make a job seem quite desirable.
Whoever takes the head position in Atlanta will be entering one of the league’s worst divisions. Carolina just won the South with a mediocre 8-9 record. That might be looked upon favorably by prospective coaches.
It was noted that Cleveland relieved two-time Coach of the Year Stefanski of his duties on “Black Monday,” so, naturally, general manager Andrew Berry is diligently looking for a successor. Kalshi has Harbaugh trading at 16¢ to fill the vacancy.
Cleveland’s current defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is presently the market leader, showing a 19% probability to be promoted. Schwartz spent the past three seasons in Northeastern Ohio, but his only head coaching experience comes from Detroit (2009-2013).
Harbaugh signing in Cleveland would be especially interesting. Not only would that mean remaining in the same division, but he’d also have the opportunity of competing against Baltimore twice each season. Additionally, Harbaugh was born in Toledo, which is just down Lake Erie’s shore. He also went on to play his college ball for Miami University (OH), giving him strong ties to the state.
This is a franchise in transition yet again, but Cleveland still has some aspects to like. Pass-rusher Myles Garrett is arguably the best individual player in football, and he will almost certainly win another AP Defensive Player of the Year award after setting the single-season sack record. The secondary here is also solid, as they allowed just 167.2 YPG passing in 2025.
Since relocating in 2020, the pro football franchise from Las Vegas has experienced ridiculous turnover. The team is currently looking for their sixth head coach in five seasons. With that, Kalshi gives Harbaugh a 13% probability to land in Southern Nevada.
As noted, Harbaugh’s brother, Jim, previously coached for this organization when they were located in Oakland. Fast-forward to now, and Jim coaches against Las Vegas as the head man for the Bolts. If John joins Vegas, we’d get to see a Harbaugh v. Harbaugh game twice a year!
Kalshi’s market for Las Vegas’ next head coach is led by Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who is trading at 35¢ here. As a respected figure around the league, Flores brings prior head-coaching experience from Miami (2019-2021).
Working in “Sin City,” comes with many perks, such as no state income tax and a wealth of entertainment in a close proximity. However, Las Vegas has much work to do from a roster standpoint.
Team captain Maxx Crosby ended 2025 on a disgruntled note, and at the moment, this squad has no answer at quarterback. Will possessing the first pick for 2026 fix that
Prior to Las Vegas naming its next head coach, Kalshi has Indiana’s Heisman-quarterback Fernando Mendoza trading at 79¢ to be selected No. 1 overall at this April’s draft.
The field
Harbaugh is present in Kalshi’s markets for Arizona’s (6%) and Tennessee’s (3%) open jobs, but these are not viewed as likely outcomes at this time.
For a bit of a breaking-news plot twist, Harbaugh has displayed significant movement to be Miami’s next pro head coach upon Mike McDaniel’s firing. With recent dismissal announced Thursday morning, Harbaugh is surging here, as he is now tagged with a 50% chance (up from 20% on Wednesday afternoon) to take over a Miami team that went 7-10 in 2025.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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