New Zealand and Egypt meet tonight in Vancouver, both still chasing the first World Cup win in their history, with the winner set to take sole control of a suddenly wide-open Group G.
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Both sides opened the tournament with draws that left all four Group G teams level on a point apiece. That changed earlier today when Belgium and Iran played out a goalless draw in Los Angeles, with Belgium reduced to 10 men after a 66th-minute red card. Iran and Belgium now sit on two points apiece, meaning tonight's winner in Vancouver moves clear at the top of the group with one match left to play.
Kalshi traders give Egypt a 56% chance to win tonight's match, with a tie at 25% and New Zealand at 20%.
What's at stake: New Zealand vs Egypt
New Zealand actually leads Group G on goal difference after matchday one, despite Egypt being favored tonight on Kalshi’s markets. A win for either side would put it within touching distance of a first-ever World Cup victory, while a loss would leave that team needing a result in its final group game against Belgium or Iran to survive. Egypt still has a third match against Iran to settle its qualification picture, while New Zealand closes out group play against Belgium next Friday.
New Zealand's hard-fought draw
New Zealand opened its first World Cup appearance since 2010 by twice taking the lead against Iran, only to be pegged back both times in a 2-2 draw. Elijah Just scored both New Zealand goals, becoming the first All White to score more than once in a World Cup match, with Chris Wood setting up both finishes, according to Sky Sports. Iran's Ramin Rezaeian and Mohammad Mohebbi each scored to salvage the point.
All Whites coach Darren Bazeley has called this matchup the biggest of his side's tournament. "It's going to be a challenge, but one that we're not scared of," he said ahead of kickoff.
Egypt's near-miss in Seattle
Egypt came within 22 seconds of a historic first World Cup win against Belgium, leading through Emam Ashour's 19th-minute strike until substitute Romelu Lukaku's introduction forced a Mohamed Hany own goal in the 66th minute. Captain Mohamed Salah set up the opener on his 34th birthday, becoming the first African player on record since 1966 to register a World Cup goal involvement on his birthday, per Opta.
Egypt coach Hossam Hassan has framed the tournament as bigger than any one player. "We don't want to rely on one single star," Hassan said ahead of the tournament.
Group G race tightens
Tonight's result will also reshape the Group G winner market, where Egypt has climbed to 47% after this morning's Belgium-Iran draw, with Belgium next at 34%, Iran at 14%, and New Zealand at just 6%.
The bigger picture
Beyond tonight's match, Kalshi traders have France as the favorite to win the World Cup outright at 17.2%, just ahead of Spain at 16.6% after Spain's draw with Cape Verde shook up the market. Neither Egypt nor New Zealand appears anywhere near that conversation as tournament favorites.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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