NFL Playoff Tiebreaker Rules, Explained: How Ties Are Broken

Every year, the final weeks of the National Football League (NFL) regular season bring potentially complicated playoff scenarios. Two teams might enter their final game with identical records and division titles at stake. Or three or more teams could be vying for the final wild card spot. 

If and when teams end the season tied, the NFL uses established and predetermined playoff tiebreaker rules to help finalize playoff berths and seeding. This begins with factors like head-to-head record and divisional or conference win percentage before moving to more complicated measures like strength of victories or schedule. 

If all else fails, a coin toss could decide a team’s fate. 

In this guide we’ll break down the NFL playoff tiebreaker rules for divisional and wild card ties, showcase the difference in tiebreakers for two teams versus three or more teams, and discuss their impact on Kalshi’s playoff qualifier and divisional winner markets. 

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.}

Each season four teams in eight separate divisions fight for a division title and with it, a top four seed and automatic playoff berth in the NFL playoffs. However, if teams finish the season with identical records, the NFL is forced to work through divisional tiebreakers sequentially to find the true division champion. 

The simplest, and first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. For example, if the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals both finish 13-5, but the Bengals won both of their head-to-head encounters, Cincinnati will earn the division title over Baltimore. 

However, if they split their head-to-head matchups, the NFL then moves to the next step in its tiebreaker proceedings. Prior to getting to a coin toss, there are 11 tiebreaker criteria for the league to work through if two teams in a division are tied. 

If two teams are tied for the division at the end of the regular season, the following tiebreaker procedure is followed in order to determine the divisional winner: 

At any step where there is no longer a tie, the process stops. 

In the case that three or more teams are tied for the divisional lead at the end of the season, the NFL works through nearly the same tiebreaking procedure. 

However, the first step compares the best winning percentage among all tied teams in the games against each other. For example, if Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are all tied, the primary tiebreaking step will be determining the winning percentage in the four games played against the tied opponents. 

In other words, Cincinnati’s winning percentage in its four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh will be compared to the winning percentage of the others in games against the other tied divisional clubs.

After that, the tiebreaker works through the same sequence as when two teams are tied. However, at any point when a tie is broken, the process starts all over. 

For example, if Cincinnati and Baltimore are both 3-1 in games between the tied trio, but Pittsburgh is 0-4, Pittsburgh is eliminated at step 1, and the process restarts. At that time, Cincinnati and Baltimore are evaluated using the two-team tie rules, first evaluating head-to-head records in their games. If those games are split, it continues down the tiebreaker proceedings until a tie is broken. 

Wild card tiebreakers work differently than divisional ties because teams competing for wild card playoff berths may come from different divisions and have not played each other during the regular season. 

However, when comparing teams for wild card spots, the NFL will first evaluate and break ties inside the division. This is because multiple teams from the same division can’t be compared simultaneously against a team from a different division. 

Only after in-division ties are broken will more broad conference level tiebreaker measures be evaluated. Therefore, when evaluating a pair of teams from the same division for a wild card berth, the NFL will use the divisional tiebreaker system listed above to rank the teams. 

If teams competing for the wild card are from different divisions, like the NFC East and NFC South, the NFL will use a more conference-focused tiebreaker sequence to rank the teams. 

If there are two teams tied, the NFL uses the following sequence: 

While the tiebreaker rules are similar to those from the division, a few important caveats apply. For example, head-to-head record only applies as the first tiebreaker should the teams have played against each other. 

Additionally, the third tiebreaker requires that the teams play at least four common games. If that requirement is not met, the step is skipped. 

While tiebreakers are used to determine playoff berths and seeding at the conclusion of the regular season, they aren’t only relevant at the end of Week 18. 

When it becomes more likely that a tie may occur, understanding tiebreaker scenarios throughout the season can directly impact divisional winner or playoff qualifier markets on Kalshi. 

Before settlement, a contract's price reflects the market's real-time assessment of the probability of the event occurring. Therefore, a late-season head-to-head battle can have major implications on the probability of a team making the playoffs as tiebreaker criteria takes shape. 

Given the real-time nature of prediction markets, Kalshi traders are likely to take positions that reflect updated tiebreaker scenarios as games unfold, perhaps within minutes of an event finalizing. 

Consider an example from last NFL season, when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens met in Week 18. Heading into the final week of the regular season, the Steelers were 9-7 while the Ravens were 8-8. 

The Steelers had won the first matchup between the two teams, giving them an edge in the head-to-head record. However, both teams had the same divisional record at 3-2. Therefore, if the Ravens won the final game and split the head-to-head, they would move to 4-2 in division, while the Steelers fell to 3-3. 

Based on the tiebreaker sequence for two divisional teams, the Ravens would then hold a tiebreaker edge over the Steelers, granting them the AFC North title with a win. 

Knowing this before the game would allow Kalshi traders to follow the Week 18 game and better understand its potential impacts on the playoff qualification and AFC North division winner markets. 

While NFL playoff tiebreakers may look complicated because the league needs procedures to break ties across multiple teams and divisions, the principle is straightforward. 

Tiebreakers start with results most directly connected to the tied teams and then progressively broaden the comparison until a team comes out ahead. 

For divisional ties, this means starting with head-to-head records, and moving to divisional criteria. For wild card teams from different divisions, performance within the conference becomes more important. 

Only after record-based or win percentage criteria is evaluated do measures like strength of schedule or strength of victory come into play. And while the NFL rulebook technically would allow a coin toss to break all ties, the scenario would need to survive at least 10 other tiebreakers first. 

As the season develops, tiebreakers become increasingly important to determining playoff seeding and postseason berths. To better understand which teams may be in position for a playoff berth, traders can follow Kalshi's playoff qualifiers and divisional winner markets.

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