Ohio governor odds: Acton hits all-time high of 76% as an attack ad draws bipartisan criticism

Last week, Amy Acton's chances on Kalshi had climbed 14 points in a month to 68%. With 14 days left until the midterm election, the market has moved again. Acton now sits at an all-time high of 76% in the Ohio governor's race.

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On Monday, pro-Ramaswamy accounts on social media began circulating a roughly 60-second ad featuring Donna Arthur, Acton’s mother. In the ad, Arthur tells viewers not to vote for her daughter and says Acton “has lied her entire life.” She specifically disputes Acton’s account of a childhood that included living in a tent.

The ad itself does not say who produced or paid for it. Asked about it, Ramaswamy campaign spokesperson Connie Luck said the campaign doesn’t know what happened between Acton and her mother. She also called Acton “a serial fabulist who has some serious problems with the truth.” The campaign did not directly say whether it was behind the ad.

Acton has spoken publicly about her difficult childhood for years, long before she ran for office. Her stepfather was criminally charged with abusing her when she was a child. After that, she and her brother were placed in their father’s custody, and Acton has said she has been estranged from her mother since then.

Her brother, Philip Stearns, released a statement through Acton’s campaign. In it, he condemned the decision to give their mother a platform and called the ad “a despicable low.”

The ad drew criticism from Acton’s supporters, as expected. More notably, it was also criticized by several conservatives.

Even the right-leaning Washington Examiner ran the story under the headline that the ad had backfired on the Ramaswamy campaign.

Not every reaction was negative. Some conservative outlets presented the ad as a challenge to Acton’s credibility. One of them argued it would upend the race.

The ad is the latest in a race that has turned sharply negative in its final weeks. Earlier, outside groups backing Ramaswamy ran ads accusing Acton of substance abuse, which she denies. A Ramaswamy campaign ad about a woman whose mother died during COVID lockdowns also drew scrutiny. Local outlets reported that the mother died in Kentucky, after Acton had already left her post.

Acton has gone negative too. Her campaign has run ads attacking Ramaswamy’s biotech record, and local fact-checkers have said some of those ads lack key context. She has also declined to debate, citing what her campaign calls lies about her and her family.

Markets rarely move on a single headline, and Acton’s climb started well before this week. Still, a new high this close to Election Day suggests traders see little sign of the race tightening. With early voting already underway, every remaining day leaves Ramaswamy fewer votes to win back.

The next test comes Saturday, when Barack Obama joins Acton and Sherrod Brown at a rally in Cleveland. Ramaswamy, for his part, still has the President’s support and a deep personal war chest. Whether either one moves the market in the final 14 days is now the question traders are pricing.

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