Ohio governor odds: Acton's chances surge to 68% over Ramaswamy

With 20 days till the midterm election, and many states already voting, it's easy for all the attention to go to the slate of federal races like Senate and swing House districts across the country.

But along with the shift of power in Washington, D.C., there are key governorships up for grabs, including the most poised for a red-to-blue flip in the Buckeye State.

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Currently on Kalshi, it has Amy Acton winning the governorship at 68%, with a huge surge of 14% in the last month, while it has Vivek Ramaswamy at 32%.

Ohio, a state not so distantly in the past that was competitive for Democrats, started out as a sleeper due to the strong showings of Republicans in the past few cycles. President Trump had won it resoundingly in three general elections, carrying it by 8 points in 2016 and 2020, then by 11 in 2024. Governor DeWine himself was well-liked and had won reelection resoundingly in 2022, defeating Democrat Nan Whaley by 25 points (62.4% to 37.4%).

But the race has seemingly turned on its head in 2026.

Democrat Amy Acton is a former Ohio Department of Health director appointed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. She became a household name during daily 2020 COVID briefings, and resigned in June 2020 amid political pressure. 

Vivek Ramaswamy, the biotech entrepreneur and 2024 Republican presidential candidate, won the Republican primary resoundingly with Trump's endorsement and has poured more than $36 million of his own money into the race.

What could explain the recent surge in the market is the accumulation of polling that shows a narrow but consistent lead for Acton.

A YouGov poll (Sept. 18–30, 3,780 likely voters) had Acton at 48% and Ramaswamy at 44% (+4). An NYT/Siena survey (Sept. 22–Oct. 1, 616 LV) showed Acton at 49% and Ramaswamy at 45% (+4). A CNN/SSRS poll (Sept. 29–Oct. 5, 760 LV) put Acton up 50–42 (+8). A more recent Co/efficient poll released Oct. 8 (Oct. 5–6, 925 LV) was the exception, showing Ramaswamy ahead 45–43, within the margin of error.

Trump has campaigned hard for Ramaswamy, most recently at a Youngstown rally on Oct. 12 where he called Acton a "total lunatic" who "shut down Ohio schools during Covid" and claimed she wants to take away guns.

Trump has repeatedly praised Ramaswamy as a "very good friend" and "very smart guy." This, in conjunction with the October 13, 2026, announcement that Former President Obama will host a joint rally with Amy Acton and Former Senator Sherrod Brown (also on the ballot this year) on Oct. 24 in Cleveland, show how the polls and interest in this race have led to even more establishment figures getting involved on both sides. For reference, Ohio is a state President Obama carried twice when he ran for President.

One of the key issues of the race that could have possibly changed the tide has been data centers, causing strain for both top of the ticket Republicans. The Buckeye state has more than 200 data centers, ranking sixth highest in the country. This, along with average residential electric bills surging roughly 12% higher than the previous year and 62% higher than a decade ago, has turned data centers into a grassroots issue breaking through partisan lines.

The candidates have split sharply on the issue. Ramaswamy initially tried to thread the needle with a flashy "Ohioans-First" pledge promising free electricity to neighbors, but after state regulators and energy experts blasted the plan as a legal and physical impossibility, he's noticeably toned back the promises. However, he has still remained very much on the pro side of the argument.

Acton, meanwhile, has leaned hard into the grassroots anxiety, backing stricter state guardrails and a conditional moratorium "if requirements on costs, union labor, transparency, environmental standards, community benefit agreements, and development are not met." That localized friction has given independent and some Republican voters a tangible reason to defect from their usual voting patterns.

Voting in Ohio has begun and the barnstorming by candidates will continue, but the question singularly lies with the fact: Can Vivek Ramaswamy mount a late comeback with money and help of the President, or is this environment so against Republicans that Democrats could win the governorship of the Buckeye state for the first time since 2006?

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