Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's price on Kalshi's Ohio special Senate election market rose 9.8 percentage points since Sept. 9 to 61%, putting his chances well ahead of Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
The Ohio Senate winner market shows Brown’s chances priced at 61% and Husted’s at 40%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What do the polls say?
Recent polls also show Brown ahead of Husted, although by varying margins.
A Marist poll of registered voters conducted Sept. 24 to 27, 2026, shows Brown leading Husted 51% to 43%.
Another poll from Big Data Polling shows Brown with a 3-point lead over Husted at 46% to 43%.
Husted emphasizes Brown's record
The New York Times’ Emily Davies reported Husted's campaign has not focused on showcasing his own record and has instead leaned into Brown's previous tenure as Ohio's senator.
“With polls showing Mr. Brown and Mr. Husted in a tightening race, the Republican’s campaign has leaned into the misconception, spending millions of dollars on ads that refer to his opponent as ‘Senator Sherrod Brown,’” Davies wrote.
The Times reported that Husted's campaign has intentionally portrayed Brown as the incumbent despite Husted currently holding the seat. An Ohio Republican strategist told the newspaper that the strategy was designed to channel voter dissatisfaction with the status quo toward Brown.
“One Republican strategist in Ohio, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race, said the campaign was intentionally casting Mr. Brown as the incumbent, a rare opportunity amid dismal Republican approval ratings for the party to harness anger at the status quo,” Davies wrote.
Husted and the data center issue
There are also some issues that Husted has not been able to shake by painting his opponent as the incumbent. ABC News’ Benjamin Siegel reported in August that Husted has also sought to address voter concerns over the growth of data centers and their potential effect on electricity costs.
“In a new memo to artificial intelligence companies operating in the state obtained by ABC News, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign committee, wrote that Husted and his Democratic opponent, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, are in a ‘dead heat,’ according to their private polling,” Siegel wrote. “Controversial data centers play a role in that race, according to the memo.”
Data-center development has become a campaign issue amid concerns about electricity costs. Brown has sought to connect Husted to the state's expansion of data centers, while Husted has proposed measures intended to prevent their power demands from increasing costs for residential customers.
“Brown has claimed Husted, who previously served as Ohio’s lieutenant governor before his appointment to the Senate, was responsible for bringing data centers to Ohio and has sought to tie him to the tax breaks from Republican Gov. Mike DeWine’s administration,” Siegel wrote.
Balance of power
Brown's rise comes as Kalshi traders also price Democratic control of Congress as the most likely outcome on the congressional balance-of-power market.
The congressional balance-of-power market currently prices a Democratic sweep at 62%. Democratic House control combined with Republican Senate control sits at 28%, while a Republican sweep is priced at 8%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: AFGE
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
