Ohio Senate odds: Brown holds near 60% as Democrats outpace Republicans in early voting

It has been eight days since the Buckeye State started in-person early voting, and nearly 230,000 Ohioans have already cast their ballots.

Two weeks ago, Sherrod Brown climbed nearly 10 points to 61% on Kalshi. Since then, Republicans have poured money into the state, and President Trump has rallied there twice.

But all of this has not shifted markets. Brown sits steady about 60% to win, with Sen. Jon Husted at 40%, with a point or two fluctuation over the past week barely even noticeable on a chart.

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The early numbers so far seem to favor Democrats.

According to Secretary of State data reported by News 5 Cleveland's Morgan Trau, Democrats have cast about 95,000 of those votes. Unaffiliated voters account for about 67,000, and Republicans are nearing 64,000. (Ohio assigns party affiliation based on which primary ballot a voter last chose.)

The shift from 2024 is stark. At this point two years ago, Republicans made up 36% of early voters and Democrats 26%. This year, Democrats are 41% and Republicans just 28%.

The gap has narrowed even in Trump country. In the 81 counties Trump carried in 2024, Republicans outnumbered Democrats 44% to 20% among early voters a week in. This year, both parties are at 39%. In Hamilton County, Democrats have returned more than 7,800 ballots, compared with about 2,000 at this point in 2022.

Republicans caution against reading too much into it. "Early voting, in the end, really tells you nothing," GOP strategist Bob Clegg told Trau, noting that Republican voters tend to wait and vote on Election Day. Still, he acknowledged the party has a turnout problem. "Anytime you win everything, you got a turnout problem," he said. "The Democrats had it in 2022."

As covered previously, data centers have become a defining issue in both of Ohio's top races. The NRSC's own Aug. 18 memo was blunt: "More than any other thing in this race, data centers are the anchor hanging around Husted's neck."

The memo said Brown was "using it because it works." It noted he had aired three TV ads on the issue with more than 6,000 points of television. It also called data centers "a sleeper issue for the entire election cycle" and warned that if Husted loses over them, "politicians across the country will take notice." Rather than looking to campaigns, the committee put the burden on the industry, writing that the companies "have to fix how Ohioans see them."

Like I wrote previously, the Buckeye state has more than 200 data centers, ranking sixth highest in the country. This along with average residential electric bills surging roughly 12% higher than the previous year and 62% higher than a decade ago, has turned data centers into a genuine grassroots issue hurting Husted.

Brown has leaned in. On Oct. 5, his campaign put up billboards across the state calling Husted "the face" of data centers, tying him to $2.5 billion in tax breaks from his time as lieutenant governor. About $53 million in ad spending in the race has been mentioned or focused on data centers, according to the Cook Political Report.

Brown has also hit Husted hard on the Iran war, tying it directly to costs on Ohio farms. A new Brown ad accuses Husted of voting 13 times to drive gas and diesel prices to record highs. On the trail, Brown has blamed the war, along with tariffs, for rising diesel and fertilizer prices that are squeezing rural Ohio.

Polling has stayed close, with Brown ahead in most surveys. CNN/SSRS (Sept. 29–Oct. 5, 760 likely voters) had Brown up 49% to 43% (+6). NYT/Siena (Sept. 22–Oct. 1, 616 likely voters) showed Brown 49%, Husted 46% (+3). The exception was co/efficient (Oct. 5–6, 925 likely voters), which put Husted ahead 44% to 43%, within the margin of error.

Republicans are treating Ohio as a must-hold. Trump rallied in Vandalia on Oct. 3 and Youngstown on Oct. 12, and will be rallying Northern Kentucky this weekend which puts him squarely in the Cincinnati media market. This plus using Jon Gruden and Jake Paul, both Ohio natives to speak at recent rallies, has shown how valuable Ohio is to the Republicans holding the Senate. Outside groups have begun to help as well, with Americans for Prosperity Action dropping $3.4 million into the race.

Democrats are bringing in their own closer. Former President Obama, who carried Ohio twice, will rally with Brown and Amy Acton in Cleveland on Oct. 24. "Sherrod Brown has always fought for working people," Obama said in a statement.

With under three weeks left, Democrats are banking votes early and traders are holding Brown near 60%. Republicans are counting on Election Day turnout to close the gap. Will Trump's visits and a late wave of GOP money be enough?

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